News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • (Market Alert) Australian Dollar Pops on RBA as Taper Plan is Left Alone, Now What? #AUD $AUDUSD #RBA
  • RT @KyleR_IG: "We need to boost confidence. So we should stimulate. But maybe people will know we are trying to boost confidence. And then…
  • $AUDUSD popping on the #RBA The central bank will continue to buy A$5b/week of bonds until early September, then tapering to 4b until at least mid-Nov Traders likely unwinding bets that the RBA could have reversed prior decision on asset purchases
  • RBA: Sees gradual pickup in wages growth, underlying inflation. Sees some increase in unemployment rate in near-term -BBG
  • RBA: GDP to decline in September quarter, experience shows economy bounces back quickly. Economy still expected to grow strongly again next year -BBG
  • RBA: Condition for rate rise will not be met before 2024, sees Australia growing 'little over' 4% in 2022 -BBG
  • RBA sticks with taper plan -BBG #AUD $AUDUSD
  • 🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision Actual: 0.1% Expected: 0.1% Previous: 0.1%
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.72%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.97%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
US Dollar Steadies as May FOMC Minutes Detail "Patient" Approach

US Dollar Steadies as May FOMC Minutes Detail "Patient" Approach

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

FOMC Minutes Talking Points

  • The May FOMC minutes detailed a reserved conversation among policymakers who believed that patience on rates would be appropriate for the foreseeable future.
  • Many FOMC members saw the early-2019 dip in inflation readings as “transitory.”
  • Rates markets show a small dip in 2019 rate cut odds relative to where they stood prior to the May FOMC minutes release.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The May Fed meeting minutes suggest that policymakers will be keeping interest rates at their current level for the foreseeable future. The May FOMC minutes echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remark at the May Fed meeting press conference that the slowdown in inflation was “transitory” and not “persistent.” It’s worth noting that US inflation expectations have subsided in the weeks since the May Fed meeting.

In accordance with the FOMC’s neutral view, the minutes noted that members observed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely remain appropriate for some time. Earlier this year, the March Summary of Economic Projections’ dot plot suggested that FOMC members did not believe rates would move for the rest of 2019, before one 25-bps rate hike in 2020.

Fed Funds Futures Rate Expectations (May 22, 2019) (Table 1)

fed rate expectations, usd rate expectations, federal reserve rate cut odds, fed rate cut odds, fed rate hike odds

Following the May FOMC minutes, Fed funds futures were pricing in 69% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by the end of 2019 – barely lower than the 70% odds seen prior to the release.

DXY Index Technical Analysis: 1-minute Price Chart (May 22, 2019 Intraday) (Chart 1)

dxy price forecast, dxy technical analysis, dxy price chart, dxy chart, dxy price, usd price forecast, usd technical analysis, usd price chart, usd chart, usd price

Following the release of the May FOMC minutes, the US Dollar (via the DXY Index) gyrated higher and lower, but ultimately steadied around levels seen prior to 14 EDT/18 GMT. Ahead of the release, the DXY Index was trading at 98.02, which is where it was last seen at the time this note was written.


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.