News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/UVvf51HiVP https://t.co/yywnE39MLU
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/l705RWumj5 https://t.co/jBbMKYp0F5
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/YUhC9cCDpy
  • The US Dollar has spent much of October giving back September’s gains. Is there any hope for change? Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/3EHa6PV5yH https://t.co/PrP9J2klJk
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/wDVd2QvcjO
  • The longer-term EUR/USD outlook will hinge on Thursday’s ECB guidance; any hint of a further easing of Eurozone monetary policy would weaken it, but that is far from guaranteed. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/RmHCfIwdqp https://t.co/hvETa6mtft
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/M8WTvZgx2K
  • The Australian Dollar was under selling pressure this past week, but it held its ground. Bearish patterns brew in AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. Will EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD try to break higher again? Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/04kzJSqgNG https://t.co/ulPk1UneMM
  • Stocks are set to endure a string of data releases with market-moving potential in the week ahead in the form of tech earnings, European GDP and more, even as the US Presidential election clamors for the spotlight. #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here https://t.co/R6tpEvfXJb https://t.co/7koHTyh2AK
  • As we round our way towards a new week, Cable is within the confines of a bullish structure with beginnings back in September. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/NIbRTVmjqq https://t.co/zYma4Iq4dP
AUD/USD to Eye Fresh 2018-Lows on Wait-and-See RBA

AUD/USD to Eye Fresh 2018-Lows on Wait-and-See RBA

2018-04-02 21:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to Hold Cash Rate at Record-Low of 1.50%. Will Governor Philip Lowe and Co. Continue to Tame Bets for a Rate-Hike in 2018?

- AUD/USD Remains Under Pressure in April, Sits Near 2018-Low (0.7643). Relative Strength Index (RSI) Preserves Bearish Formation from Late-2017.

Trading the News: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

DailyFX Calendar

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may keep AUD/USD under pressure as the central bank remains in no rush to lift the cash rate off of the record-low.

The RBA may stick to the current script as ‘inflation remains low, with both CPI and underlying inflation running a little below 2 per cent,’ and the central bank may merely attempt to buy more time as ‘household incomes are growing slowly and debt levels are high.’ As a result, more of the same from Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may instill a bearish outlook for the local currency as its dampens bets for a rate-hike in 2018.

At the same time, an unexpected shift in the monetary policy outlook may heighten the appeal of the Australian dollar as market participants prepare a for higher borrowing-costs, and a batch of hawkish rhetoric may trigger a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as the central bank prepares to normalize monetary policy.

Impact that RBA rate decision has had on AUD/USD during the previous meeting

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

MAR

2018

03/06/2018 03:30:00 GMT

1.50%

1.50%

-5

+44

March 2018 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

AUD/USD 5-Minute Chart

AUD/USD to Eye Fresh 2018-Lows on Wait-and-See RBA

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate at the record-low of 1.50% in February, with the central bank largely endorsing a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as ‘inflation is likely to remain low for some time, reflecting low growth in labour costs and strong competition in retailing.’ The policy statement suggests the RBA will stick to the sidelines throughout the first-half of the year as ‘the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy,’ and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may continue to tame expectations for a rate-hike as ‘an appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.

The Australian dollar struggled to hold its ground following the rate decision, with AUD/USD pulling back from the 0.7790 region, but the move was short-lived as the pair ended the day at 0.7828. Want More Insight? Sign up and join DailyFX Market Analyst David Cottle LIVE to cover the RBA rate decision.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart
  • AUD/USD carves a fresh series of lower highs & lows coming into April, with a break/close below the former-resistance zone around 0.7650 (38.2% retracement) opening up the next downside region of interest around 0.7590 (100% expansion).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.7460 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7530 (38.2% expansion), which lines up with December-low (0.7501), with the near-term outlook for AUD/USD tilted to the downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) clings to bearish formation carried over from late last year.
  • However, a series of failed attempts to close below the 0.7650 (38.2% retracement) region raises the risk for a rebound in the exchange rate, with the first topside hurdle coming in around 0.7720 (23.6% retracement) to 0.7770 (61.8% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

New to the currency market? Want a better understanding of the different approaches for trading? Start by downloading and reviewing the DailyFX Beginners Guide!

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES