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EUR/USD Rebound to Fizzle on Dismal Euro-Zone CPI Report

EUR/USD Rebound to Fizzle on Dismal Euro-Zone CPI Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) to Hold Flat in October.

- Core Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 0.9% for Third-Consecutive Month.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Trading the News: Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The disinflationary environment in the euro-area may produce a further decline in EUR/USD as the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready and willing to further embark on its easing cycle, but the stickiness in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may keep the Governing Council on the sidelines throughout 2015 as the non-standard measures work their way through the real economy.

What’s Expected:

EUR/USD Euro-Zone CPI

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

Despite speculation for a major announcement at the ECB’s December 3 interest rate decision, signs of sticky price growth may encourage central bank President Mario Draghi to endorse a wait-and-see approach, and the Governing Council may merely look to buy more time as they continues to assess the outlook growth and inflation.

Expectations: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Trade Balance s.a. (AUG)

22.1B

19.8B

Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)

0.0%

0.0%

Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

-2.4%

-2.6%

Waning demand from home and abroad accompanied by lower input costs may push European firms to offer discounted prices, and an unexpected slowdown in the headline & core rate of inflation may weigh on the Euro exchange rate as market participants boosts bets for additional monetary support.

Risk: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Economic Confidence (OCT)

105.1

105.9

Business Climate Indicator (OCT)

0.31

0.44

Markit Purchasing Manager Index- Composite (OCT P)

53.4

54.0

However, improved confidence paired with the pickup in private-sector activity may foster sticky price growth in the euro-area, and a better-than-expected CPI report may heighten the appeal of the single-currency as it provides the ECB with greater scope to retain the current policy throughout the remainder of the year.

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How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bearish EUR Trade: Euro-Zone CPI Fails to Meet Market Forecast

  • Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short EUR/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Euro trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit.

Bullish EUR Trade: Sticky Headline & Core Inflation Dampens Bets for More ECB Easing

  • Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade.
  • Implement same setup as the bearish Euro trade, just in reverse.

Potential Price Targets For The Release

EURUSD Daily

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • EUR/USD remains at risk of giving back the advance from back in July as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) largely fails to preserve the bullish formation from back in March; will favor a further decline in the euro-dollar should the momentum indicator break 30 and push into oversold territory.
  • DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail crowd flipped back net-short EUR/USD on October 28, but the ratio continues to narrow it sits at +1.00, with 50% of traders long.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.1760 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1810 (38.2% retracement)
  • Interim Support: Interim Support: 1.0790 (50% expansion) to 1.0800 (23.6% expansion)

Read More:

Price & Time: EUR/USD – Make or Break Level Here?

USD Struggles to Hold Fed-Driven Rally as GDP, Home Sales Disappoint

Impact that the Euro-Zone CPI report has had on EUR during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

SEP

2015

09/30/2015 09:00 GMT

0.0%

-0.1%

-10

-51

September 2015 Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EUR/USD Chart

Driven by weak energy prices, the Euro-Zone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly contracted for the first time since April, with price growth falling an annualized 0.1% in September, while the core rate of inflation remained steady at 0.9% for the second month. The disinflationary environment may put increased pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further embark on its easing cycle especially as the board struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. The Euro tracked lower following the worse-than-expected print, with EUR/USD steadily losing ground throughout the North American session to end the day at 1.1175.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

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