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GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Jobless Claims Report

GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Jobless Claims Report

David Song, Shuyang Ren,

- U.K. Jobless Claims to Contract for 28th Consecutive Month in February.

- Wages to Expand an Annualized 2.2%- Fastest Pace of Growth Since June 2013.

Trading the News: U.K. Jobless Claims Change

Another 30.0K decline in U.K. Jobless Claims paired with a hawkish Bank of England (BoE) Minutes may spark a near-term rebound in GBP/USD should the fundamental developments boost interest rate expectations.

What’s Expected:

GBP/USD Jobless Claims Change

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

Why Is This Event Important:

At the same time, Average Weekly Earnings are projected to increase an annualized 2.2% after climbing 2.1% in January, and a marked expansion in household earnings may encourage BoE Governor Mark Carney to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the central bank anticipates a more sustainable recovery in the U.K economy.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

Expectations: Bullish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Markit Purchasing Manager Index (FEB)

53.3

54.1

Producer Price Index- Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

-11.9%

-14.2%

CBI Business Optimism (JAN)

--

15

Falling input costs paired with the pickup in business confidence may spark a marked expansion in job/wage growth, and a positive development may heighten the appeal of the British Pound as the BoE largely remains on course to normalize monetary policy over the medium-term.

Risk: Bearish Argument/Scenario

Release

Expected

Actual

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

1.3%

-2.6%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JAN)

0.2%

-0.5%

Mortgage Approvals (JAN)

61.0K

60.8K

However, the slowdown in building activity along with the pullback in business outputs may drag on hiring, and a dismal labor report may push Governor Carney to further delay the normalization cycle in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

How To Trade This Event Risk(Video)

Bullish GBP Trade: Claims Slip 30.0K or More Accompanied by Stronger Wages

  • Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade
  • If market reaction favors buying sterling, long GBP/USD with two separate position
  • Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
  • Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit

Bullish GBP Trade: Labor Report Fails to Meet Market Expectations

  • Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade
  • Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in opposite direction

Read More:

Scalp Webinar: USD, GBP Crosses in Focus Ahead of FOMC

COT-Largest Commercial Hedger Long Position in AUD on Record

Potential Price Targets For The Release

GBP/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • The near-term rebound in the RSI may pave the way for a larger rebound in GBP/USD as the oscillator comes off of oversold territory.
  • Interim Resistance: 1.5000 pivot to 1.5020 (50% expansion)
  • Interim Support: 1.4700 pivot to 1.4710 (78.6% expansion)

Join DailyFX on Demandfor Real-Time Updates on the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index!

Impact that the U.K. Jobless Claims Change has had on GBP during the last release

Period

Data Released

Estimate

Actual

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

JAN

2015

02/18/2015 9:30 GMT

-25.0K

-38.6K

+62

+73

January 2015 U.K. Jobless Claims Change

GBP/USD Chart

U.K. Jobless Claims decline another 38.6K in January following the revised 35.8K contraction the month prior. The unemployment rate subsequently fell to 5.7% in three-months through November, reaching the lowest level since September 2008. In addition, private wages grew more-than-expected over the last quarter at an annualized rate of 2.1% amid forecasts for a 1.7% print. The ongoing improvement in the U.K. labor market may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to retain a hawkish tone for monetary policy as the central bank anticipates stronger wage growth in 2015. The sterling gained ground following slew of positive prints, with GBP/USD breaking above the 1.5400 handle to end the day at 1.5444.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Shuyang Ren

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link

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