News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (DEC) Actual: 95.3 Expected: 94.9 Previous: 96.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-02-25
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.58% France 40: 0.54% FTSE 100: 0.39% Wall Street: 0.34% US 500: 0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/TDT69DjXeV
  • S&P 500 Rally May Lift Hang Seng, ASX 200 on Dovish Fed, 3rd US Vaccine. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/02/25/SP-500-Rally-May-Lift-Hang-Seng-ASX-200-on-Dovish-Fed-3rd-US-Vaccine.html https://t.co/w22gDJEcXa
  • 🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (DEC) Actual: 88.3 Expected: 87.8 Previous: 89.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-02-25
  • RT @FxWestwater: Crude Oil Price Forecast: Demand and Supply Drivers Firing on All Cylinders Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/02/25/Crude-Oil-Price-Forecast-Demand-and-Supply-Drivers-Firing-on-All-Cylinders.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5…
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/YKS41u2Ptg
  • Risk appetite has spread heading into Thursday trade with more than just the SPX taking the lede. GameStop ($GME) is back in the top performance depth chart. What does this mean for trends ahead? My analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/25/GameStop-Commands-the-Speculative-Headlines-as-SP-500-and-Yen-Crosses-Rally.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/54seZPSCN0
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (DEC) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 87.8 Previous: 89.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-02-25
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (DEC) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 94.9 Previous: 96.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-02-25
  • Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD, CAD/JPY, CAD/CHF, EUR/CAD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-cad/2021/02/25/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Forecast-USDCAD-CADJPY-CADCHF-EURCAD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CAD $USDCAD $CADJPY $CADCHF $EURCAD https://t.co/e8Xc41LGna
Preview for December NFP and Price Action Outlook for USD

Preview for December NFP and Price Action Outlook for USD

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Ahead of the US jobs report, rates markets (per Fed funds futures) are pricing in a 73% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.

- Expectations for the headline NFP figure have turned higher after the ADP Employment report showed that the US economy added +250K jobs last month.

- Retail trader sentiment continues to suggest weakness among the major USD-pairs.

Upcoming Webinars for Week of December 31, 2017 to January 5, 2018

Today at 8:15 EST/13:15 GMT: Live Event Coverage: US NFPs (OCT)

See the full DailyFX Webinar Calendar for other upcoming strategy sessions

The US Dollar (via DXY Index) is continuing to claw back its weekly losses, with the DXY Index almost back to unchanged on the week ahead of the December US Nonfarm Payrolls report this morning.

Price action has been decidedly bearish for the DXY Index over the past few weeks, holding below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs; and both MACD and Stochastics remain trending lower, nestled comfortably in bearish/negative territory. For now, however, the weekly low is holding at 93.78, coincidentally the post-September FOMC meeting swing low on September 22.

Chart 1: DXY Index Daily Timeframe (August 2017 to January 2018)

Preview for December NFP and Price Action Outlook for USD

Current expectations for today's data have improved over the last 24-hours, after better than expected ADP Employment report showing that the US economy added +250K jobs last month. Unfortunately, while the ADP report in conjunction with the ISM Services report serve as contemporaenous indicators, we don't get the ISM Services data until 90-minutes after the December NFP is released. Accordingly, according to a Bloomberg News survey, the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%, and the headline jobs figure to come in at +190K. Wage growth is due in around +2.5% y/y.

Overall, as long as the headline in today's jobs report comes in above +75K to +125K, the jobs data will be good enough to keep the economy on track to maintain the unemployment rate (U3) at 4.1% through the end of 2018. The Atlanta Fed Jobs Calculator shows that the US economy needs to add +109K jobs for the next 12-months to maintain the unemployment rate at 4.1%.

From this point of view, the US Dollar's bearish posture could erode heading into next week, particularly if US Treasury yields continue trending higher, the US Dollar remains a favorable 'buy the dip' candidate against the lower yielding safe haven currencies like the Japanese Yen.

Chart 2: USD/JPY Daily Timeframe (January 2017 to January 2018)

Preview for December NFP and Price Action Outlook for USD

USD/JPY has been trading in a sideways range for the past 12-months, with the recent swing highs since April 2017 capped off near 114.60. The pair does however have a burgeoning bullish technical structures ahead of the US jobs data today. In USD/JPY, price is above the 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, while MACD and Stochastics are in bullish territory (above the median or neutral lines). Accordingly, we'll be watching for a break of the December 12 high of 113.75 to signal that a swing into the 12-month range highs is due up next.

Read more: USD Rebounds, but Out of Favor at Start of 2018

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES