- Despite a push to fresh monthly lows, AUD/USD has reversed and is now looking at a potential bullish key reversal on the day.
- Retail trader sentiment now suggests mixed conditions for the US Dollar around the Thanksgiving holiday.
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The US Dollar has stabilized ahead of the holiday, and that may be just about all the greenback will do. The steep drop on November 14 found the DXY Index trading between the October 26 bullish outside engulfing bar low and the July 26 baerish engulfing bar high.
Since then, over the past week, price has yet to leave this newly-minted range; and given the liquidity drain expected over the coming days, it's not exactly the ideal conditions for a breakout.
Despite holding support near 93.48, technical damage has been done to the US Dollar's rally from the September lows. Not only has the three-week range from October 26 to November 14 broke, but so too has the uptrend from the September 8, 20, and October 13 lows. Momentum has swung lower as well, with the DXY Index still trading below its daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMAs, and MACD and Stochastics trending lower (albeit in bullish territory still).
For now, all this equates to is it being appropriate to hold a broadly neutral US Dollar bias for the coming days; there may be individual instances in which a particular pair can be labeled 'bullish' or 'bearish' otherwise.
As the holiday nears, we'll be watching AUD/USD (bullish key reversal forming today) and USD/CHF (holding 0.9840) for potential opportunities. See the above video for full technical considerations in AUD/USD and USD/CHF, as well as in the DXY Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
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