News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇨🇳 New Yuan Loans (MAR) Actual: CNY2730B Expected: CNY2450B Previous: CNY1360B
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.18%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 New Yuan Loans (MAR) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: CNY2450B Previous: CNY1360B
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.30% Silver: -0.61% Oil - US Crude: -0.67% View the performance of all markets via
  • Build you crude oil strategy with some basic key insights. Hone your trading skills here:
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.19% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via
  • Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD at Risk as US Treasury Yields Aim Higher - $EUR $EURUSD
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.11% France 40: 0.07% US 500: -0.18% Wall Street: -0.21% FTSE 100: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via
  • Crude Oil Prices Struggle Even as Powell Highlights Strong Recovery
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here:
Market Attention Shifts to Yen, BOJ as US Dollar Eases Post-FOMC

Market Attention Shifts to Yen, BOJ as US Dollar Eases Post-FOMC

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Fed funds still pricing in June 2017 as most likely period for first hike.

- Bar for BOJ action is high, which means propensity for disappointment is too.

- FX volatility set to remain high - it's the right time to review risk management principles to protect your capital.

At first blush, the Federal Reserve's policy statement yesterday, despite there being no change in rates as expected, was a touch more hawkish than anticipated. Optimism over recent improvement in the labor market and relaxation of concerns over foreign market developments (cough cough, Brexit) highlighted a Fed that is backing away from its pseudo-crisis posturing and instead flipping back into the data dependency mode.

While these slight changes to the FOMC's outlook, coupled with the fact that there was a dissenter calling for a rate hike, leads us to believe that there was more than a spirited debate at the FOMC meeting. Indeed, in three weeks' time when the July FOMC minutes are released, there should be signs that several policymakers are closer to calling for an outright hike, if not for overriding caution for exogenous risks. Therefore, in September, we;ll be looking for the Fed to reinsert language into its policy statement that it is preparing to hike at one of the forthcoming meetings - akin to the 'hawkish holds' we saw in September and October 2015.

While the undercurrents of the FOMC are nuanced and likely indecipherable to most market participants in the near-term (hence the US Dollar pullback), there is one place to look that highlights the stability of the market's pricing around the FOMC (and therefore the major reason not to look for significant US Dollar weakness just yet): rate expectations.

Fed funds implied probabilities barely moved over the past 24-hours, with today seeing only a -4% less chance of a hike in December 2016 compared to yesterday, and likewise, only a -4% less chance of a hike in June 2017. This is not a material shift lower in expectations by any means.

Accordingly, it seems that the minor US Dollar weakness resulting from yesterday's FOMC meeting are simply weak hands being shaken out (there was a 12% chance of a hike yesterday pre-FOMC - some market participants were very wrong and had to reverse their positions in all likelihood, contributing to the minor pullback).

Until interest rate expectations fall back materially, there is little reason to believe that the US Dollar is beginning its next leg lower at present time.

See the video (above) for (another) discussion on the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Yen, as well as technical considerations in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: Preview for July FOMC Meeting and Outlook for US Dollar

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.