News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • I'm not usually big with head and shoulders patterns but there are conflicting signals in $USD atm. 1st chart here is on h4 and it's a h&s with neckline ~ 90. 2nd chart is on h8, and its an inverse h&s with neckline ~ 91. Given calendar, a break this week can def happen. https://t.co/EuuD7kFDVP
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 66.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lXqkGmTKFc
  • Today was the 'quiet' session of the week with only a few high profile indicators on tap. The high profile fundamental themes start up in earnest tomorrow (including the IMF's WEO). We will see how speculative charge for the likes of GME competes with global growth forecasts
  • US Dollar Head and Shoulders Pattern, Focus on USD/CAD, NZD/USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2021/01/25/US-Dollar-USD-Head-and-Shoulders-Pattern-Focus-on-USDCAD-USD-CAD-NZDUSD-NZD-USD.html https://t.co/FzJjpcePv3
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.30% Germany 30: 0.29% France 40: 0.27% US 500: 0.17% Wall Street: -0.24% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/iV9dAbK0YI
  • $AUDJPY fell to an intraday low around 79.77, hitting its lowest level since early last week. The pair has since rebounded to trade back above 80.00. $AUD $JPY https://t.co/hkWWiqvQGd
  • US Indices have pared some of their losses, with the S&P and Nasdaq trading back in the green. DOW -0.19% NDX +0.39% SPX +0.17% RUT -0.76% $DOW $QQQ $SPY $IWM
  • USD/MXN is in the midst of a bullish breakout from a short-term falling wedge pattern, but this plots in the midst of a much longer-term falling wedge pattern. Get your $USDMX market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ETuevzf4vr https://t.co/ESqNfBnWzm
  • Italian PM Conte convenes cabinet for Tuesday to inform ministers he is resigning - Cabinet office $EUR Confirming earlier reports
  • Gains on $WTI Crude have stalled out this month below $54.00. The commodity is currently trading around $52.30 after falling to a two-week low late last week. $OIL $USO https://t.co/8Rq7RCrXZB
US Dollar Rebounds to Trend Resistance Ahead of NFPs

US Dollar Rebounds to Trend Resistance Ahead of NFPs

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points:

- Risk sentiment hanging on by a thread - a lot hinges on NFPs.

- USD/JPY not a legitimate bullish look until ¥107.65 is cleared.

- Higher volatility in FX markets should have implications for your trading strategies.

The USDOLLAR Index has has a nice little rebound this week, but it's far too soon to say that this is "the low." There is some growing technical evidence to support this view - key reversals in AUD/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD, to wit - but there's a storm brewing on the horizon: the April US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

With no Fed meeting in May and anxiety starting to creep in about a rate hike in June, there doesn't seem to be much middle ground for another 'Goldilocks' print here. Given the disappointing performance of Q1'16 GDP data and in turn, the softness in early-Q2'16 projections (the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast declined to +1.7% from +1.8% yesterday), market participants are desperately hoping that the US labor market is in strong enough shape to give hope for stronger growth in the second half of this year ('wait 'til the second half' - feels more déjà vu from 2013, 2014, and 2015).

So, while the technicals have been shaping up fairly nicely the past few days, you can't ignore the disruptive possibility that the April US labor market report brings - especially after the disappointing ADP private jobs figures yesterday. Curiously, banks' estimates have been skewed higher, ranging as high as +250K. This disparity between underlying expectations (which show a high degree of variance) and what data indicators are suggesting provides the fuel for a significant market reaction tomorrow.

See the above video for technical considerations in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, the US S&P500, and the USDOLLAR Index.

Read more: May Seasonality Sees Best Month of Year for USD After April’s Showers

If you haven't yet, read the Q2'16 Euro Forecast, "EUR/USD Stuck in No-Man’s Land Headed into Q2’16; Don’t Discount ’Brexit’," as well as the rest of all of DailyFX's Q2'16 quarterly forecasts.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher's e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES