Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Oil Price Targets: Crude Recovery Eyes August Highs– WTI Trade Levels

Oil Price Targets: Crude Recovery Eyes August Highs– WTI Trade Levels

What's on this page

Oil prices have continued to rebound off downtrend support for the past three weeks with the near-term recovery now approaching multi-month trendline resistance just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil weekly price chart (WTI). Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this US Dollar trade setup and more.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - Crude Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: In my last Oil Price Weekly Outlook we noted that crude had rebounded from key support around 51.03/60 with, “initial resistance eyed at the April trendline.” More than two-weeks later and WTI prices have continued to hold a range just below this slope as weekly RSI tightens into the apex of a broader consolidation extending off last year’s momentum high. Note that the 38.2% parallel of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the yearly high has continued to govern the lows of for the past three-weeks.

Initial resistance now stands at the 61.8% retracement of the July decline at 56.94 with a breach above the April trendline needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. Critical resistance / broader bearish invalidation steady at 60.06/47. Look for soft support at the monthly low-week close at 54.23 backed by low-day close at 52.29. Ultimately a break /close below key support at 51.03/60 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend targeting 48.24.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: Oil prices are rebounding off down-trend support with the advance once again approaching the April trendline. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 56.94 – look for a reaction there IF reached (area of interest for possible topside exhaustion). Ultimately, a breakout of the 51-57 range / RSI consolidation zone is needed to offer guidance on the medium-term directional bias. I’ll publish an updated Crude Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term price action.

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - Crude Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Oil - the ratio stands at +1.08 (52% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since August 13th; price has moved 0.4% lower since then
  • Long positions are 22.4% lower than yesterday and 0.5% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 34.4% higher than yesterday and 0.4% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil price trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES