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Crude Oil Weekly Price Outlook: WTI Rally Fizzles Ahead of Resistance

Crude Oil Weekly Price Outlook: WTI Rally Fizzles Ahead of Resistance

2019-01-22 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Crude Oil is on the defensive to start the week with price pulling back from six-week highs after rally of more-than 18.7% from the yearly / monthly open. While the threat of more near-term losses remains, the broader outlook remains constructive - here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the WTI weekly chart.

New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Crude Oil Beginners Guide

Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI - Weekly Timeframe

Notes: In our previous Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that prices had rebounded from a critical support confluence with the advance targeting initial pitchfork resistance around ~50.49. “A breach above the median-line would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place with such a scenario targeting the 200-week moving average at ~52.12 and the confluence resistance zone at 55.21/53.” Crude broke higher in the following days with the advance surpassing the 200-week moving average last week.

The rally failed just ahead of confluence resistance with prices poised to register an outside-daily reversal today in New York. The immediate threat is for further losses here, but the broader outlook remains constructive while above the 61.8% retracement of the December advance at 46.91. Initial support rests at the median-line at ~48.32. Topside resistance objectives remain unchanged with a breach above 55.21/53 needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting critical confluence resistance at the 50% retracement / 2018 open at 59.61-60.06.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line:The crude oil price advance remains vulnerable near-term while below 55.21/53. From a trading standpoint, looking for a support on a larger pullback towards the median-line to offer more favorable long-entries with our broader focus weighted to the topside while above 46.91.

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Crude Oil Trader Sentiment

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +2.16 (68.4% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since October 11th; price has moved 26.7% lower since then
  • Long positions are 7.2% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 7.0% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Crude Oil trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Crude Oil retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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