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USD/CHF Price Outlook: Pending Swissy Technical Breakout

USD/CHF Price Outlook: Pending Swissy Technical Breakout

2018-08-17 17:30:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
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The Swiss Franc has been in consolidation for the past few months with USD/CHF trading just below key resistance at the yearly highs. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CHF charts heading into the close of the week. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: USD/CHF has continued to trade within the confines of the initial August opening range. Key confluence support rests at 9890-9902 where the monthly open converges on the 61.8% retracement of the June advance, the 100 day moving average and basic trendline support. Daily resistance stands at 9991- a breach above this region would be needed to validate a near-term breakout targeting key resistance at 1.0058/71 (breach / close above to mark resumption).

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USD/CHF 240min Price Chart

USD/CHF Price Chart 240min

Notes: A closer look at USD/CHF price action further highlights this near-term price consolidation with the pair still holding within the weekly opening range. Until we break this range, treat it as such. A downside break would expose 9846/50 backed by the June lows at 9788.

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Bottom line: USD/CHF remains within a well-defined range and we’re looking for a break of monthly opening-range (9890-9991) to offer further guidance on our near-term directional bias. From a trading standpoint, I’ve favored fading strength while within this zone until we get the definitive break.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

USD/CHF Trader Sentiment

USD/CHF Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USDCHF - the ratio stands at -1.28 (43.9% of traders are long) – weak bullishreading
  • Traders have remained net-short since April 19th; price has moved 4.3% higher since then
  • Long positions are0.6% higher than yesterday and 6.5% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 16.8% higher than yesterday and 0.5% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCHF prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCHF-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in USD/CHF retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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Relevant USD/CHF Economic Data Releases

USD/CHF Economic Calendar

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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