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LTC/USD Technical Outlook: Litecoin Prices Plummet towards Yearly Low

LTC/USD Technical Outlook: Litecoin Prices Plummet towards Yearly Low

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Litecoin is down nearly 60% year-to-date with prices approaching the yearly lows after breaking February trendline support earlier this week. The decline is approaching initial areas of support that could offer a reprieve. Here are the key levels that matter for LTC/USD.

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Litecoin Daily Price Chart (LTC/USD - Log)

Litecoin Daily Price Chart - LTC/USD

Notes: Litecoin prices have more than 20% since the start of June with the decline now eyeing confluence support here around ~89.23. This region is defined by near-term channel support (red), the lower parallel of the broader pitchfork (blue) and the September high-day close. Note that a longer-term trendline extending off the June lows comes in just lower and IF prices are going to see any relief, this would be the first spot to look.

Initial resistance stands with the 50-line around 101/02 with broader bearish invalidation at the monthly open at 118. A break lower from here targets the 11/29 swing low / 88.6% retracement at 76/78 – look for a stronger reaction there.

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Bottom line: The momentum profile and broader price action suggests further losses in store for Litecoin. That said, this is the first are of interruption which limit losses near-term. From a trading standpoint, a good area to reduce short exposure with a rebound off this mark likely to offer more favorable short-entries while below the median-line. A break below 76 would likely see accelerate losses for the cryptocurrency with such a scenario risking a drop towards 54.26.

Litecoin IG Client Positioning (LTC/USD)

Litecoin Trader Sentiment - LTC/USD
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long LTC/USD- the ratio stands at +13.79 (93.2% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long Litecoin since Dec 25th; price has moved 63.7% lower since then
  • Long positions are 7.4% lower than yesterday and 5.2% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 43.2% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Litecoin prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Litecoin price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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