- AUD/USD trading within well-defined channel, prices now testing daily resistance targets
- Check out our 2018 AUD/USD quarterly projections in our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
AUD/USD Daily Chart
Technical Outlook: The Australian Dollar has rallied nearly 3% since the start of the year with the prices now approaching near-term resistance targets at the 9/11 reversal-day close at 8026 and the 2017 high-day close at 8054. We highlighted this region early this month in my Weekly Technical Perspective and IF the market closes at these levels, prices will have posted an outside-day reversal off resistance – suggests bearish. Broad based USD losses are a concern, but from a technical standpoint the Aussie advance remains at vulnerable near-term while below these levels. Daily support rests at 7886/98.
AUD/USD 240min Chart
Notes: A closer look at near-term price action highlights a well-defined ascending channel formation extending off the December lows with Aussie trading just above channel support / weekly opening-range lows at 7956. A break / close below this threshold shifts the focus towards more significant support at 7886/98- an area of interest for near-term exhaustion / long-entries.
A breach above the high-day close at 8054 targets channel resistance around ~8100 backed by the 2017 high at 8125 and the 100% extension at 8153. Bottom line: the immediate advance is vulnerable but ultimately a pullback should offer more favorable long-entries. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking side-ways to lower in price while below 8054 with a break higher ultimately targeting subsequent resistance objectives.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis mini-series
AUD/USD IG Client Sentiment
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.83 (35.4% of traders are long) – bullishreading
- Retail has remained net-short since Dec 19th; price has moved 4.8% higher since then
- Long positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 6.2% higher from last week
- Short positions are 5.5% lower than yesterday and 7.5% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to rise. However, retail is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUDUSD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Click here to learn more about sentiment!
Relevant AUD/USD Data Releases
Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading
Other Setups in Play
- Weekly Technical Outlook- USD Warning Signs of Stretched Price Action
- USD/CHF to See a Reprieve as Price Rebounds Off Support
- USD/JPY Responds to Confluent Support- Rebound to Offer Opportunity
- Bitcoin Bloodbath: Prices Nearing Support, Is Relief in Sight?
- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To receive Michael’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at firstname.lastname@example.org