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DXY, USD/JPY Rallies Eyeing Resistance Ahead of U. of Michigan

DXY, USD/JPY Rallies Eyeing Resistance Ahead of U. of Michigan

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • DXY rally tags 2016 TL resistance ahead of U.S. data
  • USDJPY targeting key resistance range into 107.50/80
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

DXY Daily

DXY Daily Chart

Technical Outlook: The DXY post-election reversal is back up near resistance with the rally failing at a basic trendline extending off the yearly highs. Heading into tomorrow’s University of Michigan Confidence Survey, the focus is on this resistance with the immediate topside bias at risk while below this level. Ultimately I’d be looking to buy a pullback with a breach higher targeting 99.53 where the 2016 high-day close converges on basic channel resistance.

Look for a possible exhaustion high heading into the close of the week with a move back below the yearly open at 98.69 targeting the monthly open at 98.39 followed by a sliding parallel extending off the 4/12 low (~98.00). Key support & broader bullish invalidation rests at 97.22/26.

USD/JPY Daily

USDJPY Daily Chart

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: USDJPY is extending into a near-term resistance confluence at 106.81 with more significant resistance seen just higher at 107.49/82. This region is defined by the July high, the 1.618% extension of the August ascent and slope resistance extending off the 12/18 highs.

As with the dollar index, the immediate advance is at risk heading into these targets with near-term support eyed at 105.55 backed by our bullish invalidation level at 104.64/81- a level defined by the October 13th swing high, the November open & the lower median-line parallel extending off the September low. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking for this rally to push into near-term exhaustion and give way to a pullback which could offer more favorable long-entries.

Other Setups in Play:

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---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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