News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.57% Gold: -0.85% Silver: -1.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/sqkI5pXajb
  • Forex Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.28% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/JtkOOLrtBz
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Focus Market Readout due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-30
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.20% FTSE 100: 0.11% France 40: -0.39% US 500: -0.45% Wall Street: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Z8IqQDxEvC
  • Dividend investing is the practice of investing in dividend-paying stocks. Why should you invest in dividend stocks? Find out: https://t.co/v8jRlj0OvP https://t.co/84CzBgWQLg
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 10:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-30
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Prel (NOV) Actual: -0.2% Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-30
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Prel (NOV) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-30
  • 🇬🇧 Mortgage Lending (OCT) Actual: £4.3B Expected: £4.455B Previous: £4.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-30
  • 🇬🇧 Mortgage Approvals (OCT) Actual: 97.5K Expected: 84.486K Previous: 91.5K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-30
USD/JPY: NFP Gameplan Same as Jackson Hole- Buy the Washout

USD/JPY: NFP Gameplan Same as Jackson Hole- Buy the Washout

2016-09-01 18:29:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY at near-term resistance ahead of key U.S. data
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USDJPY 120min

USD/JPY: NFP Gameplan Same as Jackson Hole- Buy the Washout

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: Last week I highlighted a near-term consolidation structure heading into Jackson Hole with while noting that the, “trade has become increasingly one sided and from a trading standpoint, I would be looking for a washout to the downside before inevitably reversing higher.” Well Yellen did not disappoint with a brief break below the formation reversing sharply through trendline resistance.

We’ve been tracking this setup on SB Trade Desk all week – the advance responded to confluence resistance in early New York trade today with the pullback now sitting on the 61.8% median-line parallel. Heading into tomorrow’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release, the trade remains constructive while above the weekly open at 102.05 with a break below the weekly opening-range low / 101.76 needed to shift the focus back to the short-side.

A breach above this key resistance region targets subsequent topside objectives at 104.47, 104.92 & 105.80. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking for a washout lower on the release to possibly offer favorable entries near structural support. If the pair just breaks higher from here, a fade opportunity may present itself on an exhaustion run into 105. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade & more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Desk.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

USD/JPY: NFP Gameplan Same as Jackson Hole- Buy the Washout
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net long USDJPY- the ratio stands at 1.82 (65% of traders are long)- weak bearish reading
  • Long positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 32.5% below levels seen last week while Short positions jumped 58.0% during the same time period. .
  • Open interest is 5.9% lower than yesterday and 1.3% above its monthly average
  • Despite the fact that SSI remains net long, the shift in positioning this week suggests traders may be trying to fade this advance and leaves the pair vulnerable for a breakout heading into the start of September trade.
  • Note that the last time we USDJPY SSI turned negative was the day before the July peak.

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/JPY: NFP Gameplan Same as Jackson Hole- Buy the Washout

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES