News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • So much for that Evergrande recovery. Shares of the troubled Chinese property developer are down approximately -12% today following yesterday's impressive rally (biggest in a year) https://t.co/Nome25d9Bt
  • Retail trading platform Robinhood announces hire of new Chief Compliance Officer amid regulatory scrutiny
  • There is a ridiculous number of scheduled Fed speeches on the docket next week. Powell specifically will be speaking multiple times including at an ECB hosted forum on central banking (which also has a panel with Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ heads)
  • USD Ascending Triangle, Bullish for Q4 - #DXY chart on @TradingView https://t.co/iCnRSo9N4V
  • Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's is due to give its sovereign credit rating update on Germany today ahead of weekend national elections
  • RT @BIS_org: Since the early 1990s, changes in the #MonetaryPolicy stance have affected a rather narrow set of prices – mostly in the servi…
  • Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou reached deal with the US Dept of Justice to return her to China - Dow Jones
  • Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says: - sees US GDP in 2022 between 3.75 and 4% - Supports tapering in November and concluding over the first half of 2022 - After liftoff, accommodative policy needed for some time
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn't comment on the growth forecast or monetary policy in his introductory remarks
  • Kansas City Fed President Esther George says: - The labor market friction is fading barring a resurgence of virus - A 'normal' economy is likely to remain elusive for some time - Asset buying effects complicate the judging rate change plan
USD/JPY Range at Risk as Retail FX Sentiment Comes Off Extremes

USD/JPY Range at Risk as Retail FX Sentiment Comes Off Extremes

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY near-term technicals keep focus higher into U.S. Retail Sales
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels

USDJPY 120min

USD/JPY Range at Risk as Retail FX Sentiment Comes Off Extremes

Chart Created Using TradingView

Technical Outlook: I highlighted this setup yesterday on my analyst pick – It’s too soon to tell, but a newly identified median-line off the lows could be in play here. Focus remains unchanged, “expect to see some consolidation but broadly looking for a break of the monthly opening-range, which as of now consists of the 8/2 daily candle (100.68 – 102.83/94).Initial resistance is eyed at the monthly open 102.28 with a breach above median-line resistance around ~103.55 needed to validate a more significant reversal in the pair. Subsequent resistance objectives eyed at 104.09/17 & 104.89.

Key support & bullish invalidation stands with the July low-day close at 100.57 with a break below this level risking a decline towards support targets at the July low at 99.99 & the Brexit lows at 98.79. From a trading standpoint, heading into the release I would be looking to fade weakness while within this near-term formation. For the complete setup and to continue tracking this trade& more throughout the week- Subscribe to SB Trade Deskand take advantage of the DailyFX New Subscriber Discount.

Avoid the pitfalls of near-term trading strategies by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the "Traits of SuccessfulTraders” series.

USD/JPY Range at Risk as Retail FX Sentiment Comes Off Extremes
  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI)shows traders are net long USDJPY- the ratio stands at +3.85(79% of traders are long)-bearishreading
  • Yesterday the ratio was +3.89. Long positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 6.0% below levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 3.6% lower than yesterday and 8.9% above its monthly average
  • Nothing new to add beyond yesterday’s observations- Risk remains for a rebound higher as SSI comes off recent extremes- “Keep in mind that SSI stretched into an extreme read of +4.5 as USDJPY rebounded off the August low. The last time SSI was at this extreme was on 7/8, which marked the 2016 low-close. From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade weakness into structural support.”

Help fine-tune you entries, click here to learn more about the DailyFX Grid Sight Index (GSI)

Relevant Data Releases This Week

USD/JPY Range at Risk as Retail FX Sentiment Comes Off Extremes

Other Setups in Play:

Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX’s Top Trading Opportunity of 2016

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars on Mondays on DailyFX and Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday’s on SB Trade Desk at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES