CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK:
- Standstill at 7-year highs continues as OPEC+ output update looms
- Prices shrug at API weekly inventory data, official EIA version due
- Negative RSI divergence hints steep rally may running out of steam
![](https://a.c-dn.net/b/0YPMDo/logo-stripe.png)
![Oil Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3HhLFF/500x707Forecast-Oil.png)
![Oil Forecast](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3HhLFF/500x707Forecast-Oil.png)
Crude oil prices covered little ground after a volatile session. The WTI benchmark seesawed in 3-4 percent intraday swings only to settle flat. Markets continue to wait for OPEC+ to deliver an output policy announcement. This is widely expected to bring the pledge of an additional 400k barrels per day.
That increase would fall in line with the group’s long-standing plan to gradually unwind coordinated production caps. Speculation about the possibility of a larger offering has crept into market chatter. Follow-through is suspect on any price moves driven by such a surprise given OPEC+ members’ struggles to meet quotas.
On the data front, EIA inventory flow data is expected to show US stockpiles added 1.06 million barrels last week. Markets seemed disinterested yesterday when a leading private-sector estimate from API begged to differ, flagging an outflow of 1.65 million barrels over the same period.
From the broader sentiment perspective, a risk-on tilt is evident. Asia-Pacific bourses followed higher after another ginger rally on Wall Street, and futures markets are flagging more of the same ahead. Contracts tracking the tech-tilted Nasdaq are tellingly outperforming those on the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Crude has resisted the pull of broad-based risk appetite trends recently, but may revert to cyclical-commodity form once OPEC+ event risk is in the rear-view. A jolt from the border between Russia and Ukraine might be another disruptive influence, but markets seem relatively sanguine about the standoff so far.
![](https://a.c-dn.net/b/0YPMDo/logo-stripe.png)
![How to Trade Oil](https://a.c-dn.net/b/4twLPB/500x707HowtoTrade-CrudeOil.png)
![How to Trade Oil](https://a.c-dn.net/b/4twLPB/500x707HowtoTrade-CrudeOil.png)
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Prices are hovering near 7-year highs having climbed along a steep rising trend line set from late December. Negative RSI divergence warns that upward momentum may be weakening however. That might set the stage for a downturn. A daily close below 84.65 may mark technical confirmation.
Swing low support at 81.90 follows thereafter, with a breach of that barrier exposing a path below the $80/bbl figure. Alternatively, another upward push sees the next significant hurdle running up into 92.72. That is the site of a former support area dating back to December 2013-January-2014.
![Crude oil price chart](https://a.c-dn.net/b/3fFCzA/Crude-Oil-Prices-Await-OPEC-Output-Pledge-Will-7-Year-Highs-Hold_body_Picture_1.png)
Crude oil price chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TRADING RESOURCES
- What is your trading personality? Take our quiz to find out
- See our guide to build confidence in your trading strategy
- Join a free live webinar and have your questions answered
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
![](https://a.c-dn.net/b/1WPN3z/in-article-dna-quiz-banner-bg.png)