We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • UK's Parliament votes 322 to 306 for the Letwin amendment to delay a Brexit deal until legislation is in place, attempting to assure a no-deal scenario off the table
  • Another failure Boris!
  • RT @vtchakarova: British PM Johnson says won't negotiate further Brexit delay with EU. The EU also made it very clear (see Juncker’s recent…
  • How will the Trump impeachment process affect #forex and US stocks? Find out from Rupert Osborne, @IG_US, only on Trading Global Markets #podcast. Missed the episode? Read up here: https://t.co/1Bgo0Fl5CV https://t.co/BRNvqHVjYY
  • RT @bbclaurak: I'm told that's the advice from Cabinet Secretary - legal default is still leaving at end of this month, because they can't…
  • RT @bbclaurak: No 10 claims chances of no deal go up if Letwin passes - 'the govt will step up no deal preparations immediately as the risk…
  • RT @NSoames: I shall vote against The Letwin amendment and for the Deal
  • RT @Robert___Harris: On the eve of tomorrow’s rushed Commons vote I keep thinking of the journalist Phillip Knightley’s memo to the executi…
  • The $AUD has wilted as markets price in further rate cuts even as the OCR hovers at just 1%. Those cuts may come, but labor market strength may have to wane first. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/h1Uvm8ogXh https://t.co/M1IP0jqh41
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within the financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy within a trading system can enhance a trader’s market analysis technique. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/ZCT4pwc6nv
US Crude Oil Price Outlook: Sentiment Data Suggest a Rally

US Crude Oil Price Outlook: Sentiment Data Suggest a Rally

2019-07-04 15:30:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
Share:

US crude oil price, news and analysis:

  • US crude oil prices have been falling on news of rising inventories and forecasts of weak global demand.
  • However, they now seem to be stabilizing and retail trader positioning figures are sending a bullish signal.

Crude oil price rally on the cards

For the last few days, US crude oil prices have been sliding lower despite news from the US Energy Information Administration that US crude inventories fell by another 1.1 million barrels in the week to June 28 after a drop of 12.8 million barrels the week before.

The latest reduction was smaller than the predicted 2.8 million and there are signs that demand for oil in the US could be slowing as the economy shows signs of weakness; both have contributed to lower prices.

US Crude Oil Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (July 1-4, 2019)

Latest crude oil price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

However, figures on the positioning of retail customers of IG suggest that the next move could be higher. The data show that 59.3% of retail traders are now net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.46 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 22, when US crude traded near $62.85 per barrel; its price has moved 9.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.3% lower than yesterday and 2.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.4% higher than yesterday and 3.9% higher from last week.

At DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests US crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Those recent changes in sentiment warn that the current crude oil price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

US Crude Oil Positioning Data

Latest crude oil positioning data.

Source: IG/DailyFX

You can click here for longer-term forecasts for the crude oil price in Q3

Resources to help you trade the markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.