News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Indian Rupee has been rising despite a surge in local Covid cases, owing to rising yields amid a temporary flood of US Dollars into the banking system. INR remains at risk, eyeing CPI data. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6r7hahVtx4 https://t.co/a0z46Q0Mn4
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/tnF1RME8gJ
  • Top event risk on my radar for the week ahead: Musk on SNL (Sat); run of Fed speak with Brainard, Williams, Bostic (Tues); US CPI and UK GDP (Wed); Mexico central bank rate decision (Thur); US earnings - PLTR, BABA, ABNB, DASH, DIS (Tues-Thur). What are you watching?
  • It starts. This man is living the life. https://t.co/YhD4oMNAFG
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.82% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.77% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.75% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.62% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.46% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/j5I6Gut0CR
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.85% Silver: 0.53% Oil - US Crude: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/wZsuyfwuv1
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.33%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 77.43%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/IrlL0LEJe3
  • Fresh projections coming out of the Bank of England (BoE) instills an improved outlook for the $GBP. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/BNicSsCTZG https://t.co/2tjCVIx1Vp
  • Gold Price Forecast: Gold Bulls Re-Ignite Big-Picture Bullish Trend https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2021/05/07/gold-price-forecast-gold-bulls-re-ignite-big-picture-bullish-trend.html $Gold https://t.co/TaJCgg0w0T
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.24% Germany 30: 0.17% FTSE 100: 0.17% Wall Street: 0.01% US 500: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/WlYaH7FiDo
US Crude Oil Price Outlook: Sentiment Data Suggest a Rally

US Crude Oil Price Outlook: Sentiment Data Suggest a Rally

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

US crude oil price, news and analysis:

  • US crude oil prices have been falling on news of rising inventories and forecasts of weak global demand.
  • However, they now seem to be stabilizing and retail trader positioning figures are sending a bullish signal.

Crude oil price rally on the cards

For the last few days, US crude oil prices have been sliding lower despite news from the US Energy Information Administration that US crude inventories fell by another 1.1 million barrels in the week to June 28 after a drop of 12.8 million barrels the week before.

The latest reduction was smaller than the predicted 2.8 million and there are signs that demand for oil in the US could be slowing as the economy shows signs of weakness; both have contributed to lower prices.

US Crude Oil Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (July 1-4, 2019)

Latest crude oil price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

However, figures on the positioning of retail customers of IG suggest that the next move could be higher. The data show that 59.3% of retail traders are now net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.46 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 22, when US crude traded near $62.85 per barrel; its price has moved 9.8% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 9.3% lower than yesterday and 2.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.4% higher than yesterday and 3.9% higher from last week.

At DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests US crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Those recent changes in sentiment warn that the current crude oil price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

US Crude Oil Positioning Data

Latest crude oil positioning data.

Source: IG/DailyFX

You can click here for longer-term forecasts for the crude oil price in Q3

Resources to help you trade the markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES