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Crude Oil Prices at Risk if BOE, EU Forecasts Feed Growth Fears

Crude Oil Prices at Risk if BOE, EU Forecasts Feed Growth Fears

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices erase intraday loss on helpful EIA inventory data
  • Gold prices drop as US Dollar gains undermine anti-fiat demand
  • BOE, EU Commission forecasts may feed global slowdown fears

Gold prices fell as the US Dollar pushed higher against most of its major currency countertops (as expected), tarnishing the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. The move began with ominous comments from RBA Governor Philip Lowe in early Asia Pacific trade and gained momentum throughout the trading day.

Worries about slowing global growth touched off by Mr Lowe’s remarks also weighed on cycle-sensitive crude oil prices, but the decline was aborted in the wake of EIA inventory data. It showed that stockpiles added 1.26 million barrels last week, a smaller increase than the 1.42 million barrels expected by analysts.

BOE, EU COMMISSION FORECASTS MAY FEED GLOBAL SLOWDOWN FEARS

Looking ahead, updated policy guidance from the Bank of England and the latest edition of European Commission economic forecasts are in focus. Both are likely to reflect expectations of a downshift in global growth. MPC rhetoric might add to the gloomy mood as officials worry aloud about a “no-deal” Brexit.

On balance, this bodes ill for market-wide sentiment trends. Another rout is likely to send crude oil lower along with most risky assets. A parallel drop in yields may pressure gold upward, but any advance might prove to be limited at best if haven flows continue to buoy the Greenback.

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices succumbed to renewed selling pressure after a brief respite, probing into a dense support area underpinned by a rising trend line set from mid-November (now at 1292.04). Breaking below that on a daily closing basis targets range bottom at 1276.50 next. Alternatively, a rebound above chart inflection point resistance at 1323.60 sees the next major hurdle in the trend-defining 1357.50-66.06 region.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices paused to digest recent losses, but a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern still hints a top may be taking shape. From here, a daily close below initial support in the 49.41-50.15 area opens the door to challenge the 42.05-55 zone anew. Alternatively, a reversal above the February 4 high at 55.75 exposes the next layer of resistance in the 57.96-59.05 region.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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