Talking Points:

  • Gold prices may continue to tread water until Friday’s top-tier US reports
  • Crude oil prices eyeing supply chain dynamics in API data, EIA forecasts
  • What do retail traders’ bets suggest about gold price trends? Find out here

Marquee commodities did not find sufficient inspiration for trend development on the first day of the trading week. Gold prices marked time, unmoved by the day’s offering of Fed-speak and seemingly waiting for Friday’s US inflation and retail sales data before committing one way or another. Crude oil prices edged up a bit but ultimately failed to sustain momentum as traders await API inventory flow data and monthly EIA report on short-term supply and demand trends.

Official figures from the US Department of Energy due Wednesday are expected to show raw-material storage shed 3.4 million barrels last week while gasoline stocks added 2.9 million. That will offer a benchmark for the API release. Supply chain dynamics have been more market-moving than individual readings lately. A small draw at the top relative to a big build at the bottom may hurt prices, for example.

What is driving long-term crude oil price trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to hover below four-month highs established last week, with negative RSI divergence hinting that a pullback may be brewing. A daily close belowthe 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1312.90 puts the 38.2% level at 1294.91 back in the crosshairs. Alternatively, a return to the offensive that takes prices above of the 61.8% Fibat 1330.89 exposes the 1353.15-57.50 area (76.4% Fib, September 8 high).

Gold Price Chart Hints at Topping as Crude Oil Eyes API, EIA Reports

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are struggling to build higher after rising to a 2.5-year high, with negative RSI divergence now warning a turn lower may be ahead. A drop back below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 59.83 exposes the 14.6% expansionat 58.30 anew. Alternatively, a daily close above the 38.2% Fib at 62.31 targets the 50% expansion at 64.32.

Gold Price Chart Hints at Topping as Crude Oil Eyes API, EIA Reports

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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