News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Breaking news

New Zealand Dollar on the move as home prices may be considered in RBNZ's remit

Real Time News
  • I wonder if any other central banks would follow the lead of the RBNZ on pressure to factor in housing prices in monetary policy. Go way out on a limb and perhaps even consider capital market asset inflation...probably not https://t.co/Cke07Or35H
  • EUR/CHF IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/CHF for the first time since Nov 16, 2020 08:00 GMT when EUR/CHF traded near 1.08. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/CHF weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WJ7ZCwf3Ak
  • NZD soaring on this as such an addition to the RBNZ's remit lowers the need to ease policy, given the current backdrop of rampant house prices https://t.co/2fx0VTUOZh
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda: Won't hesitate to add easing if needed BoJ measures are having a positive impact Nervousness in financial markets has eased somewhat - BBG $JPY #BoJ
  • 7 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, with 73.1% of the index’s constituents closing in the green on Monday. Cyclical energy (+7.09%) , financials (+1.88%) and industrials (1.64%) were among the best performers, whereas real estate (-0.34%), healthcare (-0.30%) were lagging. https://t.co/bDpvRqEX4u
  • #ASX200 looking poised to extend its recent run higher as RSI climbs back into overbought territory Key resistance levels falling at the 50% (6674) and 61.8% (6755) Fibonacci's $XJO $ASX https://t.co/E7VADxCJ1o https://t.co/T3ICLoE9du
  • Euro Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP Levels to Watch - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2020/11/24/Euro-Price-Action-Setups-EURUSD-EURJPY-EURGBP-Levels-to-Watch.html $EUR $EURUSD $EURJPY $EURGBP https://t.co/qxHSS90Rnd
  • BoJ Governor Kuroda: Japan's economy has picked up, still in severe state - BBG $JPY
  • NZ FinMin Robertson: Proposes RBNZ consider house prices in monetary policy Urges RBNZ to give earliest possible consideration Seeks advices on more measures to curb housing demand - BBG $NZD
  • NZ Government proposes adding house prices to RBNZ remit - BBG $NZD #RBNZ
Gold Price Drop May Resume on US PCE Inflation Data

Gold Price Drop May Resume on US PCE Inflation Data

2017-09-29 04:50:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Gold price drop pauses as Fed rate hike speculation pauses
  • Uptick in US PCE inflation gauge might revive down move
  • Crude oil prices drop to support as rebound attempt fizzles

Gold prices mounted a tepid recovery as the upturn in Fed rate hike speculation that has defined price action for much of the week paused to consolidate. The US Dollar retraced some of its recent gains alongside front-end Treasury bond yields, shrugging off an upbeat second-quarter GDP revision. Perhaps the print was deemed too dated to influence near-term policy bets and traders opted for profit-taking instead.

From here, the Fed’s favored PCE gauge of US inflation comes into focus. The on-year growth rate is expected to tick up to 1.5 percent in August, marking the first increase in six months. Analogous CPI data published two weeks ago surpassed consensus forecasts. If that proves to have foreshadowed a similarly rosy PCE result, the build in rate hike bets may resume to the detriment of the yellow metal.

Crude oil prices were taken for a wild ride. Initial gains were ostensibly triggered by Turkey’s agreement to restrict Iraqi oil export rights to the central government. The former country is home to a major pipeline outlet from the latter. This follows the Kurdish independence referendum opposed by both Baghdad and Ankara. This may reduce global supply by limiting flows from Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq.

The move higher fizzled in spectacular fashion however, with the WTI benchmark not only erasing all of its early-session gains but tumbling to finish with its worst single-day drop in three weeks. Prices’ inability to capitalize on supportive inventory data spoke to significant underlying weakness. It is possible that the passing of the week’s stock of major scheduled event risk opened the door for that to become actionable.

The weekly report from tanker-tracking firm Oil Movements might have compounded selling pressure. It said that OPEC shipments will rise to 23.96 million barrels in the four weeks to October 14 from the previous month. Tellingly, shipments form the Middle East were predicated to fall in the same period. This might have signaled the inability of the Iraq/Turkey accord to move the needle on the global supply glut.

What are the fundamentals driving long-term crude oil price trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices paused to consolidate losses above support marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1279.01. A break below that confirmed on a daily closing basis targets the 61.8% level at 1270.84. Alternatively, a turn back above the September 21 low at 1288.28 clears the way for another challenge of the 23.6% Fib at 1297.28.

Gold Price Drop May Resume on US PCE Inflation Data

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are testing support at 51.26, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. The barrier is reinforced by a trend line defining the monthly uptrend. A daily close below that exposes the 23.6% level at 50.29. Alternatively, a move above the September 28 high at 52.83 opens the door for a retest of the 53.74-54.48 area.

Gold Price Drop May Resume on US PCE Inflation Data

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES