News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.81%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.02%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • #DJIA futures eyeing a retest of the February record-high (29595.3) after breaking above Falling Wedge resistance A daily close above the January low (28130.2) could signal the resumption of the primary uptrend extending from the March doldrums $DJI #DowJones #WallStreet
  • @DailyFXTeam Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.32%) S&P 500 (+0.35%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.37%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD and $EURUSD drifting from session-highs as the haven-associated $JPY attempts to claw back lost ground. #SP500 futures, #Gold and #crudeoil all moving higher while the #ASX200 struggles to penetrate key resistance at 6,000
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here:
  • Dow Jones climbed a second day on fiscal stimulus hopes. All 9 Dow sectors were up. Traders face a quiet calendar day, with the 1st presidential debate closely eyed. The live TV debate will be on air from 9:00 to 10:30am Singapore time on Wednesday.
  • According to John Hopkins University, Coronavirus deaths globally have surpassed 1 million people
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
Gold Prices Aim Higher as Fed Rate Hike Bets Continue to Wilt

Gold Prices Aim Higher as Fed Rate Hike Bets Continue to Wilt

2017-07-19 04:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices extend gains as Fed rate hike speculation continues to wilt
  • Crude oil price rally fades as API reveals inventory build, EIA data next
  • What will drive crude oil and gold prices through Q3? See our forecasts

Gold prices continued rise as Fed rate hike bets wilted, sending the US Dollar lower alongside front-end Treasury bond yields and boosting the relative appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Markets now price the probability of another hike before year-end at 42.3 percent, down from 49.1 percent a week ago. A further unwinding of the “Trump trade” seemed to be reasoning du jour.

From here, a lull in scheduled event risk shaping global yield trends may translate into consolidation for the yellow metal. Monetary policy announcements form the BOJ and the ECB are the next major inflection points, but those will have to wait until Thursday. News-flow from Washington DC remains an ever-present source of potential volatility however.

Crude oil prices managed an intraday bounce despite news that Ecuador withdrew from the OPEC-led production cut scheme amid reports that Saudi Arabia is mulling a further export reduction of 1 million b/d. The cartel also invited Libya – thus far exempt from coordinated output cuts – to a strategy meeting in St. Petersburg on July 22. That stoked speculation that it might be brought into the fold.

The rally fell apart however as API reported that US inventories added 1.63 million barrels last week. Official EIA data is expected to show a 3.5 million barrel drawdown over the same period. If that outcome registers closer in line with the API projection, the WTI benchmark may face further selling pressure as the prospects for global oversupply reduction darken.

Have a question about trading gold and crude oil? Join a trading Q&A webinar and ask it live!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices rose for a third consecutive day, breaching resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracementat 1239.60. The next upside barrier comes in at 1250.38, the 50% level, with a further push beyond that aiming for the 61.8% Fib at 1261.16. Alternatively, a move back below 1239.60 – now recast as support – exposes the 23.6% retracement at 1226.26 anew.

Gold Prices Aim Higher as Fed Rate Hike Bets Continue to Wilt

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices remain stuck below resistance at 47.10, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis targets the 50% level at 48.65 next. Alternatively, a reversal back below chart inflection point supportat 45.32 opens the door for a retest of the May 5 low at 43.79.

Gold Prices Aim Higher as Fed Rate Hike Bets Continue to Wilt

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE.

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.