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Crude Oil Prices May Break Deadlock on Inventory Data

Crude Oil Prices May Break Deadlock on Inventory Data

2017-01-03 06:54:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices stall as traders await OPEC deal implementation
  • Weekly API oil inventories data may revive directional momentum
  • Gold prices look to ISM survey data to drive Fed path speculation

Crude oil prices remain rudderless below the $55/barrel figure as markets await news on the implementation of OPEC’s supply cut scheme. In the meantime, the private-sector estimate of weekly inventory flows from API may generate a bit of volatility.

Gold prices have stalled after rebounding to a two-week high in the final days of 2016. The spotlight now turns to December’s US ISM manufacturing survey, which may reboot speculation about the on-coming direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy.

The report is expected to show that factory sector activity grew at the fastest pace in 23 months. An upside surprise may mean little after markets spent much of the past two months pricing in a steeper Fed rate hike path. A disappointing outcome may have more market-moving potential, sending the metal upward.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices paused to consolidate gains after taking out resistance at 1149.85, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement. From here, a daily close above the 23.6% level at 1166.51 exposes the 1193.55-99.80 area (38.2% Fib, May 30 low. Alternatively, a reversal back below 1149.85 targets the December 15 low at 1122.81.

Crude Oil Prices May Break Deadlock on Inventory Data

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to mark time near December’s swing top. Near-term resistance is at 54.66, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 56.11. Alternatively, a reversal back below horizontal pivot support at 51.64 sees the next downside barrier at 49.80, the 38.2% Fib retracement.

Crude Oil Prices May Break Deadlock on Inventory Data

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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