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Crude Oil Erases Fed-Inspired Drop as OPEC Returns to Focus

Crude Oil Erases Fed-Inspired Drop as OPEC Returns to Focus

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices erase post-FOMC fall as OPEC returns to focus
  • Gold prices attempt to recover after tumbling to a ten-month low
  • Year-end capital flows may encourage reversal of recent moves

Crude oil prices bounced after the planned re-start of production at key Libyan facilities faltered. OPEC may be returning into focus as well after Kuwait began implementing the cartel’s output cut scheme and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said his country’s top producers have all agreed to cooperate with the accord. The WTI benchmark has now retraced all of the losses sustained courtesy of a surging US Dollar following last week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement.

Gold prices are attempting a shallow recovery having suffered at the hands of firming US rate hike bets last week. The metal’s almost singular focus on the trajectory of Fed policy suggests that high-profile scheduled event risk is all but exhausted for the year. This may open the door for a correction higher as investors consider that much of the recent steepening in 2017 tightening bets has hinged on speculative bets about impact of a still murky fiscal posture. That may encourage profit-taking on recent moves.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are digesting losses after dropping to the lowest level in over ten months. Near-term support is at 1118.98, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis targeting the 50% level at 1097.71. Alternatively, a move back above the 23.6% Fib at 1145.30 exposes the 14.6% expansion at 1161.52.

Crude Oil Erases Fed-Inspired Drop as OPEC Returns to Focus

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are attempting a modest recovery after finding support below the $50/bbl figure. From here, a daily close above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 52.84 exposes the 38.2% level at 54.63. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 14.6% expansion at 51.73 targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 49.78.

Crude Oil Erases Fed-Inspired Drop as OPEC Returns to Focus

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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