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Gold Prices May Bounce in Pre-Positioning for FOMC Meeting

Gold Prices May Bounce in Pre-Positioning for FOMC Meeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices may rebound amid profit-taking before FOMC meeting
  • Crude oil prices drop as EIA hints US output may offset OPEC cut
  • DOE expected to report crude inventories fell for 3rd straight week

Gold prices have been left rudderless absent news flow driving Fed monetary policy speculation. After a month of digesting the US presidential election and pricing in a hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, the lull could open the door for a bounce. This may be driven by profit-taking on shorts as traders ponder the possibility that officials’ updated 2017 projections will fall short of the steeper tightening path envisioned by the markets.

Crude oil prices fell despite API saying inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels last week. Exposure management may have accounted for the move as markets digest a last-minute OPEC output cut deal and prepare for cartel members to meet with non-OPEC counterparts this weekend. An EIA report projecting rising US output that undermines supply cuts elsewhere in 2017 may have amplified selling pressure. Looking ahead, official DOE inventory data is expected to show a 1.4 million barrel drawdown.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain locked in a narrow range but positive RSI divergence continues to hint an on-coming bounce. Near-term resistance is at 1183.28, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a daily close above that exposing the 23.6% level at 1199.50. Alternatively, a drop below the 23.6% Fib expansion at 1158.15 targets the 38.2% threshold at 1133.83.

Gold Prices May Bounce in Pre-Positioning for FOMC Meeting

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick, hinting a move lower may be ahead. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downside scenario. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 50.05 exposes the 50% level at 48.55. Alternatively, a move above the 51.64-91 area (double top, 76.4% Fib) targets the 100% expansion at 54.92.

Gold Prices May Bounce in Pre-Positioning for FOMC Meeting

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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