News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Crude Oil Prices End Win Streak as Russia Balks at OPEC Deal

Crude Oil Prices End Win Streak as Russia Balks at OPEC Deal

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil price chart setup hints topping may be in the works
  • Gold prices end losing streak following US employment data
  • Russia/OPEC headlines, Deutsche Bank may spark volatility

Crude oil prices ended the longest winning streak in two months after Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he doesn’t expect to reach a deal with OPEC at a meetingto discuss participation in the cartel’s supply control scheme in Istanbul this week. Growing supply prospects may have compounded selling pressure as Baker Hughes said the number of active US oil rigs hit an eight-month high last week.

Gold prices whipsawed after September’s US jobs data, initially rising after payroll gains fell short of economists’ expectations only to reverse lower as markets seemingly decided the miss is insufficient to derail a Fed rate hike before year-end. Indeed, the priced-in probability of an increase finished Friday’s session at 64 percent, unchanged from the seven-week high set on the prior day.

Looking ahead, a lull in high-profile economic news flow leaves markets to digest recent volatility. Follow-through may prove tepid as traders withhold directional conviction ahead of key event risk due later in the week, including minutes from last month’s pivotal FOMC meeting as well as US retail sales and consumer confidence figures.

Knee-jerk volatility remains a threat however. Deutsche Bank failed to reach a deal with US regulators lowering a $14 billion penalty for MBS-linked wrongdoing in the run-up to the 2008-09 financial crisis (according to Bild). Returning insolvency fears may offer a near-term boost to gold prices. Meanwhile, crude oil may remain sensitive to stray Russia/OPEC headline risk.

What do crude oil and gold price patterns say about on-coming trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices ended the longest losing streak in four months, stalling above the $1200/oz figure. From here, a daily close below the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1240.96 exposes the May 31 low at 1190.55. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 61.8% level at 1266.58 aims for the 50% Fib at 1287.29.

Crude Oil Prices End Win Streak as Russia Balks at OPEC Deal

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, hinting a reversal downward may be ahead. A turn below resistance-turned-support at 48.97 – the August 22 high – opens the door for a test of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 47.99. Alternatively, a reversal above the Engulfing high at 50.72 sees the next upside barrier at 51.64, the June 9 top.

Crude Oil Prices End Win Streak as Russia Balks at OPEC Deal

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES