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Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Tone in Fed Meeting Minutes

Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Tone in Fed Meeting Minutes

2016-08-17 05:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Gold prices unable to sustain gains on hawkish Fed-speak
  • Crude oil prices extend advance on output deal speculation
  • July Fed meeting minutes, EIA inventory data now in focus

Gold prices remained locked in a familiar range after another attempt to build upside momentum fizzled intraday. The metal rose against a backdrop of broad-based US Dollar weakness. The move faltered despite disappointing US CPI data on the back of hawkish comments from New York Fed President Bill Dudley, who said the market is “complacent” about the need to hike rates and “under-pricing” the scope of on-coming tightening.

Looking ahead, minutes from July’s Fed policy meeting are in focus. The central bank asserted that “near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished” following the sit-down. Traders will be keen to see more about what lurks behind this assessment to gauge whether priced-in rate hike probabilities are indeed too low, as Mr Dudley argued. Needles to say, a hawkish tone is likely to boost the US Dollar and send gold prices lower.

Crude oil prices continued to push higher amid swirling hopes for a possible supply-side deal to boost prices at meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Algiers next month. Reports asserting that representatives from Iran will attend the sit-down and reports of a formal meeting between Russia and OPEC members in October – ostensibly to follow up on any progress previously – all fed the rumor mill. A report from API suggesting inventories fell by 1.01 million barrels last week probably helped as well. Official EIA weekly inventories data is on tap ahead, with an increase of 410k barrels expected.

What does retail traders’ gold positioning say about the price trend? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to tread water. A break below range support marked by the August 8 low at 1329.79 targets the 38.2% Fibonacci retracementat 1308.00. Alternatively, a daily close above the 1367.15-77.74 area (double top, 38.2% Fib expansion) exposes the 50% level at 1398.45.

Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Tone in Fed Meeting Minutes

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices extended their winning streak for a fourth consecutive session. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracementat 46.88 exposes the 76.4% level at 48.70. Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 45.41 targets the 43.94-44.40 area (July 11 low, 38.2% retracement).

Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Tone in Fed Meeting Minutes

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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