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Gold Prices May Hold Up on ZEW Data Despite Support Break

Gold Prices May Hold Up on ZEW Data Despite Support Break

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Gold prices may hold up despite range floor break
  • Crude oil prices treading water in familiar territory
  • German ZEW survey data may trigger risk aversion

Gold prices may not find near-term downside follow-through after breaking below technical support yesterday (see chart below). Germany’s ZEW survey of investor confidence headlines the economic calendar and may offer early clues about the impact of Brexit spillover. The Euro area is ground zero for tracking the referendum’s knock-on impact outside UK borders.

A dour outcome may weigh on market-wide sentiment and boost bond prices, pressuring yields lower. In turn, this may bolster the relative appeal of anti-fiat assets. A risk-off mood may also pressure crude oil prices lower. The WTI contract has somewhat diverged from share prices in recent days but the correlation between it and the benchmark S&P 500 index remains elevated at 0.64 (on 20-day percent change studies).

Where are gold and crude oil prices heading in the third quarter? See our forecasts here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices broke support in the 1330.22-32.17 zone (July 12 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement). From here, a daily close below the 38.2% level at 1308.00 targets the 50% Fib at 1287.30. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1333.62 sees the next upside barrier at 1349.42, the 14.6% retracement.

Gold Prices May Hold Up on ZEW Data Despite Support Break

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to wait for direction cues in a now-familiar range above the $44/bbl figure. A daily close below the July 11 low at 44.40 targets the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 41.86. Alternatively, a move above the intersection of trend line resistance and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 48.14 exposes the 50.45-51.64 area (23.6% Fib, June 9 high).

Gold Prices May Hold Up on ZEW Data Despite Support Break

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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