We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence Final (JUN) Actual: -27 Previous: -31 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-06
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.22%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 69.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MNLQfuvr2U
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.33% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.30% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.01% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/1neF13YBgw
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Consumer Confidence Final (JUN) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -31 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-06
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 2.30% France 40: 2.21% Wall Street: 1.75% FTSE 100: 1.54% US 500: 1.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hossI2xmCO
  • A macro forex trading guide exploring the US-Canada relationship and how to trade the Canadian Dollar through the prism of the Core-Perimeter model. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/dF51UMcGFC https://t.co/Ba5JxKQFrH
  • RT @DanielGMoss: Risk assets following Chinese equities higher as the #ChinaA50 index breaks to fresh 12-year highs The trade-sensitive $…
  • RT @margaretyjy: The FTSE China A50 Index hit 12-year high at 15,600 points. Mainland China brokerage firms were reported to see new accoun…
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.15% Gold: -0.10% Silver: -0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/t230TpLdIC
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.24% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.18% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.02% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.22% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/5Ey0AYV0EY
Crude Oil Prices Aim Above $50, Gold Breaks 3-Month Support

Crude Oil Prices Aim Above $50, Gold Breaks 3-Month Support

2016-05-25 03:59:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices negate bearish cues, set sights above $50/bbl figure
  • Gold prices break 3-month support as FOMC rate hike outlook builds
  • Fed officials’ commentary, EIA inventory data in the spotlight ahead

Crude oil prices pushed higher alongside a recovery in stock prices, with the advancing WTI contract tracking S&P 500 futures over the prior 24 hours. The recovery in sentiment began with yesterday’s European trading open, preceding upbeat US New Home Sales data published later in the day and subsequently cited around the news-wires as a would-be catalyst. In fact, a single readily-identifiable trigger appears absent.

Meanwhile, gold prices accelerated downward as Federal Reserve rate hike expectations continued to swell, undermining demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. The yellow metal fell for a fifth consecutive session, making for the longest losing streak since mid-October. Spot moved inversely of year-end expectations for the benchmark US lending rate implied in December 2016 Fed Funds futures. That measure now stands at the highest since late March.

Looking ahead, Fed-speak returns to the spotlight as comments from Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan – Presidents of the central bank’s Minneapolis and Dallas branches – cross the wires. A hawkish tone matching recent commentary from other Fed officials may continue to boost rate hike chances, punishing precious metals. Sentiment has proven impressively resilient despite swelling stimulus withdrawal bets, warning against assuming an automatic risk-off response in this scenario.

For its part, oil is eyeing the weekly set of EIA inventory figures. A 1.66 million barrel crude stockpile drop is expected. A private-sector estimate from the American Petroleum Institute (API) hinted at a larger drawdown of 5.14 million barrels yesterday, making for the largest outflow since December 2015. Prices may rise if this proves to foreshadow a larger-than-expected decline on official readings.

FXCM traders are net-long gold by a margin of nearly 2 to 1. What does this hintaboutthe trend?

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices may be resuming their long-term down move after a narrow break of rising channel floor support set from mid-February. Near-term support is now at 1205.30, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 1174.93. Alternatively, a reversal above channel support-turned-resistance at 1230.05 targets the 23.6% retracement at 1242.88.

Crude Oil Prices Aim Above $50, Gold Breaks 3-Month Support

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices overturned previously noted bearish reversal cues, pushing upward to issue the highest daily close in over seven months. From here, a push above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 50.13 targets the 76.4% level at 51.82. Alternatively, a reversal back below resistance-turned-support at 48.77, the 50% Fib, sees the next downside barrier at 47.41 marked by the 38.2% expansion.

Crude Oil Prices Aim Above $50, Gold Breaks 3-Month Support

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.