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Gold Price Lifted by ECB Easing Package, Oil, Copper Price Rally

Gold Price Lifted by ECB Easing Package, Oil, Copper Price Rally

Nathalie Huynh,

Talking Points:

  • Gold price reached up after ECB’s rate cuts and heightened market volatility
  • Oil pricejoined risk rally to break above 38.36 resistance
  • Copper price sustained above support trend line in today’s mild recovery

At March meeting, ECB cut deposit, refinancing and margin lending rates among other expanded asset purchases and long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO). Risk buying emerged in selected assets after the event, although heightened market volatility resulted in some contradicting moves. In its economic forecast, the bank foresees oil price to average $34.9 per barrel in 2017.

Both market fluctuation andeasing implications helped to boost gold price toward a resistance at $1275, just ahead of yearly high at 1307.6. These rate cuts in the Eurozone and Brexit woes in UK make the US the only country which may raise interest rate this year. Even so, potential delay is imminent given a lacklustre in US inflation and mixed jobs gains, thus market expects the Federal Reserve to hold rate at FOMC meeting next week. Gold gains solid support as a result of this situation.

Oil price and copper price also ticked up as part of a broad risk rally following ECB meeting and Draghi’s Q&A session. Although both growth and inflation expectation for the Eurozone were downgraded in the bank’s economic forecast, yesterday’s extensive package ticked all the boxes of a stimulation program. Asian equities and commodities reactive positively throughout today, including risk currencies like AUD.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold price finally rose above 1275 past daily high although muted momentum may not provide enough lift to reach up to 1307.6 yearly high. Support on the downside has solidified after today’s event. From here the bet is about how high bullion can extend on the topside.

Gold Price Lifted by ECB Easing Package, Oil, Copper Price Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper price mostly remained above support trend line, although intraday prices have skipped the support during last 4 sessions. Next week we may see a test of will between more sideways trading and the trend line. Weak momentum does not support a retracement to 2.3020 peak.

Gold Price Lifted by ECB Easing Package, Oil, Copper Price Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Oil price finally broke 38.36 resistance level as part of a risk-on sentiment after ECB’s easing package. Upward momentum is building up thus oil may look to higher levels until the end of this week’s trading.

Gold Price Lifted by ECB Easing Package, Oil, Copper Price Rally

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

--- Written by Nathalie Huynh, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

Contact and follow Nathalie on Twitter: @nathuynh

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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