Copper and Oil Price Slide to Weak Demand as China Exports Drop

2016-03-09 01:43:00

Nathalie Huynh, Contributor

Talking Points:

Gold pricetraded flat with additional support from haven interests
Oil pricepared yesterday’s gains as hefty stockpile aggravated supply-demand gap
Copper pricehovered over double bottom while demand outlook deteriorated

Global equities snapped a week-long rally and commodities pared gains after China’s trade data yesterday underscored weak exports, relating to weak manufacturing activity. The whopping drop in trade balance from $63.2 billion in January to $32.59 billion in February was mostly due to a double digit fall in exports to all major trading partners.

Safe haven securities were quick to capture interests on the occasion. Gold pricereached up to its recent peak of 1279.8, Japanese yen strengthened to near 112 JPY per USD, and government bonds soared across US treasuries, German bunds, Australian ACGB.

Oil pricemay be the most vulnerableamong commodities complex today following a double blow from gloomy demand outlook and weighty stockpile report. At early Asia, American Petroleum Institute reported crude stock piled up by 4.4 million barrels last week, higher than 3.1 million expected in governmental data tomorrow. Overnight, profit taking activities focused in WTI oil and US stocks.

Copper price and metals suffered the most from China’s uncertain outlook yesterday. A double bottom was created at 2.2035 which has held gingerly so far. Copper and metals will continue to fluctuate to demand prospect, with China market at the forefront.

Commodity imports data from China’s Customs General Administration showed a consistent decline in imports volume of copper and iron ore this year. Note:

Chart created by author –Source: Customs General Administration. Copper in ‘000, iron ore in millions

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Gold price traded flat for another day with firm support levels at 20-day MA of 1234.9 and support trend line. The 5-day MA may relent and is no longer an immediate support. The recent peak at 1279.8 provides a firm resistance level.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

COPPER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Copper price tightly skipped a break of support trend line today. With a bit of luck and some stimulus news from China, the line may hold through this week. A firm support level comes below that at 2.1485. Topside prospect is limited.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Oil price stopped short of the 38.36 resistance level on a second day yesterday, if nothing changes this level may hold strong throughout this week. A reversal in momentum signals hint at possible downward retracement, a call for caution among oil investors.