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EUR/USD Selloff to Accelerate? Biden-Trump Race for Florida Tightens

EUR/USD Selloff to Accelerate? Biden-Trump Race for Florida Tightens

2020-09-23 23:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
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2020 Election, General Election Data, Florida Polls, Biden-Trump Spread, EUR/USD Analysis - Talking Points

  • EUR/USD selloff may accelerate after pair broke what could be trend-defining support
  • Latest polls show Biden maintaining a strong lead over Trump in general election stats
  • Race for Florida tightening as both campaigns collectively pour over 50 million dollars

41 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Fresh polling data as of September 23 show Former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden strongly ahead of President Donald Trump in general election forecasts. Even conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports show Mr. Biden in the lead, though admittedly the margin is significantly smaller than the 8.75-point average between the other four polls.

2020 US Election Polls

Chart showing polling data

Source: RealClearPolitics

As mentioned in my previous article, a growing number of coronavirus cases may impact how Americans view Mr. Trump’s ability to contain and mitigate the effects of the pandemic. As a result, his shrinking popularity in indirectly help push Mr. Biden’s higher. The Covid-19 pandemic and its effect on the economy will be one of several key topics discussed in the upcoming presidential debate on September 29.

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Florida Race Tightening

The race for Florida – a swing state where since 1992 every winner here has gone to the White House – between Biden and Trump appears to be tightening. The latest polls show the former Vice President only 3 points ahead, while ABC News/Washington Post show Trump ahead by 4. Due to the state’s high importance in the race and amount of campaign money allocated here, monitoring what happens in Florida will be critical.

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EUR/USD Outlook

Selling pressure in EUR/USD may swell after the pair cleared a key technical threshold, opening the door for further losses and the start of a potentially deep reversal. After invalidating the intersection of two rising support channels – labelled Uptrend 1 and Uptrend 2, respectively – EUR/USD plunged. However, the pair briefly paused at the lower lip of a narrow but critical support range between 1.1698 and 1.1720.

EUR/USD - Daily Chart

Chart showing EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

However, EUR/USD just broke below the lowest tier and is now trading right at the candle where Uptrend 2 originally started. Looking ahead, selling pressure may continue to grow as the pair eye March resistance-turned-support at 1.1448. The pair may catch its breath at this level if the crowd of buyers overwhelm sellers and temporarily put a pause on the selloff.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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