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Canadian Dollar Sank, Yen May Gain After Dismal Chinese Trade Data

Canadian Dollar Sank, Yen May Gain After Dismal Chinese Trade Data

2020-03-08 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Canadian Dollar, Crude Oil, Japanese Yen, Coronavirus – Asia Pacific Market Open

  • Canadian Dollar sinks with crude oil as OPEC+ talks fail on an agreement
  • Dow Jones, S&P 500 sold off despite blowout jobs data, some fiscal support
  • Dismal weekend Chinese trade data may inspire risk aversion as Yen gains

Canadian Dollar Sinks With Crude Oil, Japanese Yen Soars as Wall Street Falls

The Canadian Dollar was one of the worst-performing major currencies on Friday, falling alongside crude oil prices – as expected. The sentiment-linked commodity continued its downward trajectory with the Dow Jones and S&P 500. WTI was further hindered after it was revealed that OPEC+ talks to curb production and help boost prices ended without an agreement, plunging crude oil to its worst day in over 10 years.

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Markets largely brushed off a blowout U.S. jobs report where the country added the most positions since May 2018 in February. The data largely reflected a period prior to the coronavirus outbreak picking up pace in the country. Markets were rather focused on how the nation was preparing to respond to the Wuhan virus as it risks denting economic growth in the near-term.

To that end, U.S. President Donald Trump said that he “doesn’t know if stimulus is needed”, referring to fiscal matters. He continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to act instead. White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow noted that he “leans against payroll tax cuts” and that they “may go back to Congress for more stimulus”. Trump did sign a $7.8b package to help funding amid the outbreak.

Despite the latter and the jobs report, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed -0.98% and -1.71% to the downside Friday. The anti-risk Japanese Yen was one of the best-performing major currencies. Local Treasuries continued to see their yields tumble as investors piled into the safety of government bonds. Anti-fiat gold prices rallied with XAU/USD closing at its highest since February 2013.

Friday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session

Over the weekend, Chinese trade data revealed that exports tumbled 17.2% y/y in February, the most in over a year. This is as the country saw a trade deficit of $7.1B, markets were looking for a surplus of $24.6b instead. The deficit will subtract from GDP as it is one of the four components of measuring growth. Given that China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the “pro-risk” AUD could see some selling pressure as the week starts.

Futures tracking Wall Street over the weekend turned negative which may precede a “risk-off” tone as Asia markets open for trading. That may continue supporting the Japanese Yen, particularly after my majors-based JPY index extended its uptrend this past week. If this also translates into weakness in sentiment-linked crude oil prices, the Canadian Dollar could have further room to depreciate.

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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices extended the dominant downtrend from January as prices closed under lows from November 2016. This has exposed the trough from August in the same year at 39.23. Maintaining declines could be a potential falling resistance line from January 8 which may come into focus in the event of a bounce – pink line on the chart below.

Oil - US Crude BEARISH
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 1% -7% -3%
Weekly 19% -19% -4%
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Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Canadian Dollar Sank, Yen May Gain After Dismal Chinese Trade Data

Chart Created Using TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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