News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: Restrictions to be eased in Victoria as the state records three new COVID-19 cases https://t.co/i7ED0r6zuP
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.88% Silver: -0.04% Gold: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/JOgCXf4qhk
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/AeBDanqM4V
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LIX3ToP9Bc
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in USD/CHF are long at 75.86%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.70%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fvWYlP8HEP
  • Dow Jones Retreats Ahead of FOMC, Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 Open Lower https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/16/Dow-Jones-Retreats-Ahead-of-FOMC-Nikkei-225-and-ASX-200-Open-Lower.html https://t.co/2sjz9ZpHgH
  • 🇦🇺 Westpac Leading Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -0.06% Previous: 0.19% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-16
  • MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index (EEM), which is heavily weighed in Chinese stocks, has been struggling to breach the 54.97 - 55.34 inflection zone A hawkish #Fed (especially amid ebbing #PBOC liquidity measures), could risk weighing the index Breach under 20-day SMA exposes MAR low https://t.co/4WQED01FWV
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Lt3Z0TODqu
  • Natural gas spot prices have been on the rise, recapturing a key trendline, following the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. Where can prices head from here? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yK48nZD1ag https://t.co/CPBSrdO485
US Dollar Breakdown at these Levels Sets up Larger Yen, Euro Rally

US Dollar Breakdown at these Levels Sets up Larger Yen, Euro Rally

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

- US Dollar trades near critical support versus the Japanese Yen, next move pivotal

- Relatively muted forex volatility prices suggest few expect major Dollar breakdown

- We remain in favor of our trend-following Momentum2 trading strategy

The US Dollar trades near pivotal support versus the Yen and similar levels versus the Euro. A breakdown could force a larger USDJPY decline, EURUSD rally.

A key caveat is that forex volatility prices remain relatively muted—it seems as though traders are not betting on/hedging against a larger US Dollar breakdown at these levels. And indeed a relatively limited week of economic event risk offers little scope for major event-driven moves.

Forex Volatility Prices Have Stabilized, Remain Elevated

US Dollar Breakdown at these Levels Sets up Larger Yen, Euro Rally

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

Our trading strategy biases are admittedly mixed given clear market uncertainty. As with last week, the potential for trend change leaves us in favor of our Momentum2 trading strategy. Past performance is not indicative of future results, but this trading system has often done well in times of sustained trend reversals.

Sign up for any future updates on market conditions via our e-mail distribution list.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

US Dollar Breakdown at these Levels Sets up Larger Yen, Euro RallyUS Dollar Breakdown at these Levels Sets up Larger Yen, Euro Rally

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

Understand the Breakout2 Trading System via our previous article

Auto trade the trend reversal-trading Momentum2system viaour previous article.

Trade with strong trends via our Momentum1 Trading System

Use our counter-trend Range2 Trading system

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES