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Price & Time: "Flaky Pattern" in USD/JPY

Price & Time: "Flaky Pattern" in USD/JPY

2015-04-20 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY flirting with important downside pivot
  • GBP/USD stalls at Fib level
  • EUR/USD test key moving average

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: "Flaky Pattern" in USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has recovered steadily after finding support last week near the 1.0585 78.6% retracement of the late March range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower while below 1.0830
  • A breach of 1.0585 looks needed to set off a more important move to the downside in the euro
  • A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • A close over 1.0830 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.0830.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.0585

1.0700

1.0750

1.0805

*1.0830

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: "Flaky Pattern" in USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD stalled on Friday at the 1.5050 50% retracement of the late February/April decline
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above 1.4800
  • A close above 1.5050 is needed to trigger a more meaningful push higher in the pound
  • A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
  • A daily close under 1.4800 would turn us negative on the pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Looking to buy on weakness against 1.4800.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.4800

1.4885

1.4940

1.5000

*1.5050

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: "Flaky Pattern" in USD/JPY

“Mainstream” analysts don’t seem to like chart patterns. This is a mistake in my view as chart patterns can give tremendous behavioral/psychological insight into an exchange rate. I am not the only who thinks this way apparently as even researchers at the Fed found them useful (albeit begrudgingly) in their rather infamous 1995 research piece “Head & Shoulders: Not Just A Flaky Pattern”. It can be read HERE. Personally I think where people run into trouble with pattern analysis is by trying to apply strict and rigid rules to them (which is ironically what the Fed researchers did). A pattern really is just showing a behavioral tendency after a set of technical occurrences. A “head & shoulders” pattern, for instance, is really just a development in a market where it has failed to record new highs. The “neckline” is just the point where a lot of short-term participants will bail out of long positions (or be forced to bail out if one acknowledges the self-fulfilling aspect of widely watched patterns). So why do I bring all this up today? USD/JPY - the price action since early February has set up a pretty clear potential head & shoulders pattern on the daily. Under 118.40 triggers.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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