News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Please join @ddubrovskyFX at 20:00 EST/00:00 GMT for a webinar on what other traders' buy/sell bets say about price trends. Register here:
  • US Dollar Outlook: Fed Decision Due - Will it Spark Fireworks? The $DXY edged lower on Tuesday with $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, and $USDJPY all feeling Dollar weakness. Will the Fed catch markets off-guard with another hawkish surprise tomorrow? Link to Analysis -
  • Crude oil prices are trading largely unchanged following last week's rebound as the Delta variant of Covid and Chinese regulatory measures temper the near-term demand outlook. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • USD/JPY price action has weakened sharply on the session but is searching for support. Get your $USDJPY market update from @RichDvorakFX here:
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Stocks Decline Despite Stellar Tech Earnings, All Eyes Shift to Fed $AAPL $MSFT $GOOG $QQQ $NDX L…
  • $SPX put in for an impressive midday recovery this past session leaving a large lower wick. The scale of the lower wicks consistently larger than corrections off highs
  • 🇰🇷 Consumer Confidence (JUL) Actual: 103.2 Previous: 110.3
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.53% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.44% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.13% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.46% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via
  • US API Stock Changes Crude -4.728M Cushing -0.126M Gasoline -6.226M Distillate -1.882M #OOTT $CL_F
  • RT @Nadex: The Macro Setup is back! Tune in as @GuyAdami, @RiskReversal, and special guest @CVecchioFX discuss: -Stocks lower ahead of big…
US Dollar Outlook: Delta Covid Cases Inducing Risk Aversion. THB, PHP, IDR Wobble

US Dollar Outlook: Delta Covid Cases Inducing Risk Aversion. THB, PHP, IDR Wobble

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso, ASEAN, Fundamental Analysis – Talking Points

  • US Dollar gains against ASEAN currencies amid Delta Covid variant rise
  • Extended lockdowns could boost USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP ahead
  • Watch US CPI, a higher print risks amplifying ASEAN market volatility

US Dollar ASEAN Weekly Recap

The US Dollar extended gains against ASEAN currencies this past week, making notable progress against the Thai Baht and Philippine Peso. This is as the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah were relatively restrained. The Greenback’s performance has been closely aligning with weakness in ASEAN equities amid surging local coronavirus cases – see chart below. In fact, according to Bloomberg, countries like Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia saw combined outflows in equities the most since the third quarter of 2020.

Covid Cases in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines - Averaged

US Dollar Outlook: Delta Covid Cases Inducing Risk Aversion. THB, PHP, IDR Wobble

Chart Created Using TradingView

Key ASEAN Event Risks – Delta Covid Case Growth, Lockdowns, US Inflation Report

With that in mind, the combined direction of USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR could continue to be highly influenced by ASEAN coronavirus cases. The emerging Delta variant is proving to be a difficult headwind for most of these nations. According to Reuters, there have been enough doses administered in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia to inoculate 9.1%, 5.8% and 16.3% of their populations respectively.

This is assuming that each person needs two doses. As such, ongoing lockdowns and the risk of tighter ones could continue clouding the outlook for currencies like the Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso and Thai Baht. The former country recently expanded nationwide Covid restrictions, with Thailand’s government mulling a partial lockdown.

These lockdowns would likely continue eating away at economic growth prospects, perhaps pushing investors to pull their capital out of equities and increase capital outflows. This is something that the haven-linked US Dollar could benefit from. Meanwhile, another risk for ASEAN currencies is looming around the corner. That would be the next CPI report from the United States on Tuesday.

In June, headline and core consumer prices are expected to increase 4.9% and 4.0% y/y compared to 5.0% and 3.8% prior respectively. The Fed continues to look at near-term rising price pressures as transitory. But, a higher-than-expected outcome could bring forward monetary tightening expectations. That is a key risk for SGD, THB, PHP and IDR. A softer outcome on the other hand may help cool weakness in ASEAN currencies.

ASEAN, South Asia Economic Data – Chinese trade and GDP, Singapore GDP, Indian CPI

Focusing on ASEAN and South Asia economic event risk, the week will start off with Indian inflation data. Elevated price growth could limit to the extent the RBI may ease policy to support the economy as Covid cases climb. USD/SGD will be eying Singapore’s GDP on Thursday, with second-quarter growth estimated at 14.3% y/y. However, the pair may remain sensitive to overall market sentiment. China, a key trading partner for ASEAN countries, will be releasing trade and GDP data. As a vital regional economic powerhouse, signs of weakness there risk adding momentum to souring market mood.

Check out the DailyFX Economic Calendar for ASEAN and global data updates!

On July 9th, the 20-day rolling correlation coefficient between my ASEAN-based US Dollar index and my ASEAN ETF index changed to -0.93 from -0.97 one week ago. Values closer to -1 indicate an increasingly inverse relationship, though it is important to recognize that correlation does not imply causation.

ASEAN-Based USD Index Versus ASEAN ETF Index – Daily Chart

US Dollar Outlook: Delta Covid Cases Inducing Risk Aversion. THB, PHP, IDR Wobble

Chart Created Using TradingView

*ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index averages USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/THB and USD/PHP

-- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.