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JPY May Rise if OECD, World Bank Forecasts Shatter Growth Prospects

JPY May Rise if OECD, World Bank Forecasts Shatter Growth Prospects

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

Japanese Yen, Brexit, World Bank, OECD, British Pound, ECB – TALKING POINTS

  • Japanese Yen could nurse losses if OECD and World Bank forecasts undermine optimism
  • ECB parliamentary hearing, finance minister meeting may pull Euro in opposite directions
  • Brexit worries could accentuate selling pressure in GBP, Japan stimulus package on deck

Europe: ECB, Brexit & Eurozone Finance Minister Meeting on Deck

At the start of the week, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be attending a hearing at the European Parliament. Last week, monetary authorities did not change interest rates, but their announcement of an additional 600b euros to the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) helped to quell angst about regional financial stability. The Euro subsequently rallied while yields for sovereign Mediterranean debt fell. Commentary from the President could elicit another similar market reaction.

EUR/USD, Italian 10-Year Bond Yield, EUR/CHF – 4-Hour Chart

Chart showing EUR/USD, EUR/CHF

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

Meanwhile, Brexit talks continue to deteriorate and pressure the politically-sensitive British Pound. On Friday, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said no significant progress had been made in talks this week, and an intensive round of debate will likely occur in the fall. Prolonged political uncertainty will likely drag GBP through the mud as the UK wrestles with Covid-19. UK officials have said they will not ask for an extension of the transition period beyond the June 30 deadline.

Eurozone finance ministers will be meeting this week to discuss the region’s recovery package and succession for the Eurogroup presidency. France and Germany have recently put forward a 500b euro recovery fund that will provide grants to regions and sectors hit hardest by Covid-19. While the news initially helped to push the Euro higher, friction among policymakers could send a chilling message about timely implementation which could undermine the currency’s gains.

Asia: Japan’s Stimulus Package

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government will submit another budget to parliament in an effort to stimulate the virus-hit economy. If the measures are well-received and convince investors that they can help restore economic activity, local equity markets may rise at the expense of the Japanese Yen. Conversely, a disappointment in the proposed policies could put a premium on the anti-risk JPY and punish stocks.

Economic Forecasts by World Bank, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

The World Bank and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will be releasing their seminal Global Economic Prospects and Economic Outlook reports, respectively. The analysis therein is expected to carry gloomy undertones as the coronavirus continue to hammer global growth prospects and undermine financial stability. Elevated oscillations in FX markets may arise if the outlook is darker than expected.

Chart showing JPY Index

World Bank President David Malpass says he anticipates “a deep global recession accompanied by a collapse in global trade tourism and commodity prices, and extraordinary market volatility”. In the past few weeks, market dynamics have shown that investors’ risk appetite is strong. However, a cool down in what appears to be overheated equity markets could see capital flow into the anti-risk JPY.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitriTwitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.