Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Faith in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to raising rates has thus continued to weigh down gold prices. Investors are heeding the Fed’s guidance and appear to base their strategy around the framework of a firmly hawkish monetary agenda. Barring an economic collapse that forces the Fed to reverse course, gold is likely to continue its downward trend throughout the fourth quarter.

The current downtrend, which started midway through the third quarter, comes after breaking the upswing from lows set in December 2015, suggesting resumption of the long-term dominant decline started in October 2012.

Gold Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (October 2016 to September 2018) (Chart 1)

Gold Q4 Forecast: Gold Selloff Likely to Continue as Fed Proceeds with Rate Hikes

July 2018 looks to have been a decisive month for spot gold prices. The selloff is now struggling to sustain momentum at the $1,200/oz figure, a previously significant inflection point. However, prices would need to reclaim a foothold above $1,300/oz and probably breach range resistance in the $1,357-75 area to invalidate the overall bearish bias.

See the complete Q4’18 Gold forecast as well as forecasts for the other major currencies, equities, and Oil.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Senior Strategist and Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst