News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/NGRTSfceOW https://t.co/QkSUORIQE2
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
  • $GBPUSD continues to trade in ranges as volatility dwindles. UK data to play second fiddle to FOMC. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/T0Eg4KaENB https://t.co/GMmZa5L0Il
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/wlGgQrcK3X
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/qnQ8Cx0DKv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
Title: Crude Falls On Boost In U.S. Production, Anticipated OPEC Supply

Title: Crude Falls On Boost In U.S. Production, Anticipated OPEC Supply

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Fundamental Forecast for <USOIL>: Neutral

Crude Oil Price ForecastTalking Points

  • The ONE Thing: Short-term pain may be in store, but long-term gain remains likely. The global economic drivers continue to show impressive economic growth and the US continues to show an economy that is growing above trend. While recent news of increased US and likely OPEC+ supply has taken the immediate premium out of the market, the longer-term bullish view holds for now.
  • Per BHI, U.S. Oil Rig Count rises by 2 to 861, US total count at 1,060
  • Crude Oil Price Forecast: Brent Premium Favors OPEC Induced Volatility
  • The technical analysis picture of crude oil has a focus on the $64.73/bbl. A breakdown below the Ichimoku cloud would open up a move to the April/ March lows of $63/$60.

The last few weeks have not been as kind to Brent & WTI crude bulls. A confluence of factors that limit the premium that had been witnessed in the futures market includes likely increase of supply from OPEC and their allies, rising US Rig counts that has led to higher US production and record US exports.

Traders have best seen the increase in production by witnessing the widening spread between WTI-Brent. The spread has widened to the most since 2015. However, it is hard to argue that the economy is about to move into a production-led or consumption-led drop. The consumption per the ISM data on Friday was incredibly strong despite higher input prices and at the same time US consumer confidence remains robust.

WTI-BRENT SPREAD BLOWS OUT ON RECORD US PRODUCTION

Please add a description for the image.

Data source: DoE, Bloomberg

Mixed Signals

Markets often keep traders humble as multiple factors drive a market at any one time and the weight of those factors are often quite dynamic. Currently traders are focusing on a stronger US Dollar and a flip from backwardation in the near-month futures contracts to contango showing the premium from a near-term shortage is easing.

However, adding to the confusion is the open interest in options markets that are showing bets that crude will continue to rise. Thursday saw October Brent $100 calls options that expire in August per Bloomberg. If these pay out, we still have a lot of upside to go and dips would only be opportunities as opposed to harbingers of more pain.

Crude has nearly erased May’s Gains With ~3.5% Drop Last Week

Please add a description for the image.

Data source: Bloomberg. Created by Quasar Elizundia

Once again, WTI and Brent crude has become the market everyone is discussing! Unlock our forecast here

Crude Oil Technical Price Analysis: WTI Touches Support

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

The sharp pull-back is seen well with RSI(5) on the Daily chart. The RSI(5) has hit the lowest point since crude began its impressive in June. However, the price currently remains above deep support as provided by the Ichimoku Cloud and the median line of Andrew’s Pitchfork.

Technical resistance, which is important given the reversal is coming off of 3-year highs would be at $69.33/bbl, which is the 26-day midpoint. Additionally, a break below $64.23 would open up a move to the April/ March low between $62-$60/bbl.

Not familiar with Ichimoku? You’re not alone, and you’re in luck. I created a free guide for you here

Next Week’s Data Points That May Affect Energy Markets:

The fundamental focal points for the energy market next week:

  • Saturday: Energy ministers from Suadi Arabia, UAE & Kuwait meet in Kuwait City to discuss OPEC plans
  • Tuesday: Platts Global Crude Oil Summit in London with Goldman Sachs, Trafigura execs
  • Tuesday 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Inventories Report
  • Wednesday 10:30 AM ET: EIA issues weekly US Oil Inventory Report
  • Friday: G-7 Leaders’ Summit in La Malbaie, Quebec
  • Friday 1:00 PM ET: Baker-Hughes Rig Count
  • Friday 3:30 PM ET: Release of the CFTC weekly commitments of traders report on U.S. futures, options contracts

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a surplus of helpful trading tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.

Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feedhas intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES