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Brexit Briefing: Sterling Stable Despite Pressure From Polls, Minister Davis

Brexit Briefing: Sterling Stable Despite Pressure From Polls, Minister Davis

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- The UK’s Brexit minister warns the UK will walk away from the Brexit talks if the EU fails to compromise.

- The latest opinion polls show a narrowing lead for the ruling Conservatives over Labour.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The British Pound was clinging close to the $1.30 level Monday despite a warning from the UK’s Brexit Minister David Davis that the UK would walk away from the Brexit talks with the EU unless the EU compromises on the €100 billion bill it is demanding from the UK to pay for the divorce.

It also shrugged off a sharp narrowing in the opinion polls for the ruling Conservatives over the opposition Labour Party ahead of the UK General Election on June 8. Four recent polls have shown the lead down to between 9% and 12%, from 20% little more than a week ago.

In early European trading Monday, GBP/USD fell below the psychologically important 1.30 mark but then rallied.

Chart: GBP/USD Five-Minute Timeframe (May 22 Intraday)

Brexit Briefing: Sterling Stable Despite Pressure From Polls, Minister Davis

Chart by IG

Speaking to The Sunday Times newspaper, Davis said: “We don't need to just look like we can walk away, we need to be able to walk awayUnder the circumstances, if that was necessary, we would be in a position to do it.As for the polls, the latest show the Conservatives on 43%-46% and Labour on 34%-35% after UK Prime Minister Theresa May said the elderly would have to pay their social-care costs – a change dubbed a “dementia tax” by her opponents. On Monday, she appeared to climb down from the proposal.

Euro-Zone finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels today and a meeting of all EU finance ministers will take place tomorrow but aid for Greece will likely top the agenda rather than Brexit.

Markets

Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100

+0.41%

7,506

DAX

-0.41%

12,587

GBP/USD

-0.28%

1.2999

EUR/USD

+0.19%

1.1229

EUR/GBP

+0.49%

0.8638

Upcoming UK Event Risk

Events

Date, Time (GMT)

Forecast

Previous

UK Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (Apr)

May 23, 0830

34.3b

UK Central Government NCR (Apr)

May 23, 0830

18.3b

UK PSNB (Pounds) (Apr)

May 23, 0830

8.0b

4.4b

UK PSNB Ex Banking Groups

May 23, 0830

8.8b

5.1b

UK CBI Retailing Reported Sales

May 23, 1000

10

38

UK CBI Total Distributed Reported Sales

May 23, 1000

31

44

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at martin.essex@ig.com

Follow Martin on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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