News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Weakness in equity markets continued last week as losses built and technical patterns hint further bearishness might be ahead. Get your #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:
Brexit Briefing: Article 50 Could Be Triggered As Soon As Tomorrow

Brexit Briefing: Article 50 Could Be Triggered As Soon As Tomorrow

2017-03-13 17:04:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Talking Points

- If all goes to plan, the Brexit bill will pass through parliament today and receive Royal approval tomorrow.

- That would allow UK Prime Minister Theresa May to trigger Article 50 tomorrow if she decides to.

- A second Scottish independence referendum now seems likely, but not until Fall 2018 at the earliest.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The game of Brexit ping-pong between the UK’s elected House of Commons and the unelected House of Lords is almost over, meaning that Prime Minister Theresa May could trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to begin divorce proceedings from the EU as soon as tomorrow, although her spokesman today emphasized that May’s self-imposed deadline remains the end of the month. The UK would become the first EU country to leave.

Yet the British Pound, which has been hard hit by Brexit uncertainty, actually gained ground Monday, suggesting it could rally once at least some of that uncertainty has been removed. Bearish bets against the Pound jumped as the start of the formal Brexit process approached, according to the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report, as the negotiations between the UK and the EU could be prolonged and difficult.However, Monday’s price action suggests that it could be set for a near-term boost as some of those betting against the UK currency cover their short positions.

Chart: GBPUSD 5’ Timeframe (March 10 to March 13, 2017)

Brexit Briefing: Article 50 Could Be Triggered As Soon As Tomorrow

Chart by IG

The Commons will likely reject two changes made to the Brexit bill by the Lords, who want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK and ensure parliament has a vote on any deal, when the lower house debates it for a second time later today. If it reverses the Lords changes, the bill will be passed back to the Lords to decide whether they want to amend the government’s plans again.The bill then moves from house to house until both sides agree – parliament could sit through the night to try to reach an agreement, and time has also been set aside on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Given that ultimately the Lords will not want to go against the will of the people expressed in the June referendum last year, they will likely back down, after which the bill will go to the Queen for formal approval and May can tell the rest of the EU officially that she is ready to start the two-year negotiation process.

The Pound’s rally Monday, against the Euro as well as the Dollar, also flew in the face of a statement by Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon that she will seek authority for a new Scottish independence vote – largely because she made clear that it would not happen before Fall next year at the earliest and her political opponents rallied to oppose her.

Scotland voted against Brexit, which is why Sturgeon believes another independence referendum is needed before the negotiations end. However, opinion polls suggest the Scottish people will reject independence for a second time, which is why the Pound shrugged off the news and rallied.


Index / Exchange Rate

Change (Exchange Hours/GMT Session Rollover)

Market Close/Last

FTSE 100















Upcoming UK/EU Event Risk


Date, Time (GMT)



German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Feb F)

Mar 14, 0700



German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb F)

Mar 14, 0700



Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Jan)

Mar 14, 1000



Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)

Mar 14, 1000



German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (Mar)

Mar 14, 1000



Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Mar)

Mar 14, 1000


German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Mar)

Mar 14, 1000



--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him at

Don't trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guide

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.