0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex trading, which is the act of exchanging fiat currencies, is thought to be centuries old – dating back to the Babylonian period. Learn about the history of Forex here:https://t.co/ePTJlbUP7c https://t.co/fA7G42tGcH
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkd4B0k https://t.co/8cM3NQIvom
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here: https://t.co/NpC1D8y4Aa https://t.co/tEpCHQDoVW
  • A punny excerpt: “Already the exchanges between Mr. Barnier and his counterpart David Frost, have – apropos to his name – sent a chilling message about bilateral trade talks”. https://t.co/OkFCvUZs2H
  • #BritishPound May Fall on #Virus-Hit GDP Data, #Brexit Stalemate ⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/gbp/2020/08/08/British-Pound-May-Fall-on-Virus-Hit-GDP-Data-Brexit-Stalemate.html
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/BuFKivwj2h
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/QXaLbmFSjd
  • The anti-risk Japanese #Yen may rise versus currencies like the $AUD and $NZD on US-China tensions and fiscal stimulus woes which sank the Nasdaq 100 at the end of last week. Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/Kw0fYCHEcw https://t.co/jiQBPpzat3
  • The #Dollar is down than 3% year-to-date with the index responding to trend support at multi-year lows. Here are the levels that matter on the $DXY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/MVnF5VDoeN https://t.co/TP2k8u9sXN
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/ioGWvplvt7
Brexit Briefing: GBP/USD Well Placed to Rally After Vote in Parliament

Brexit Briefing: GBP/USD Well Placed to Rally After Vote in Parliament

2017-02-01 12:32:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

- The UK Parliament is expected to vote in favor of triggering Article 50 after the European markets close Wednesday, beginning the formal process for the UK to leave the EU

- That could boost the British Pound as the path to Brexit becomes clearer

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the week on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

The UK Parliament is expected to vote in favor of triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty after the markets in Europe close Wednesday. That would start the formal process of leaving the European Union and could prompt a drop in GBPUSD, but the pair is likely to rally later as the vote removes some of the uncertainty regarding Brexit.

Fundamentally, the UK economy is looking robust. Data released last week showed that strong consumer spending helped it grow faster than expected in the final quarter of last year, expanding by 0.6% in the October-to-December period – the same rate as in the previous two quarters, according to the Office for National Statistics. The figure indicates that the sharp economic slowdown predicted by the Remain camp following the Brexit referendum has not materialized, although in 2016 as a whole the economy grew by 2%, down from 2.2% in 2015.

Similarly, rising air fares and food prices helped to push up UK inflation to its highest rate since July 2014 in December. It rose to 1.6%, up from 1.2% in November, but remained below the official 2.0% target.

As for the future, the respected National Institute for Economic and Social Research said Wednesday that it now expects growth of 1.7% this year – only slightly down on the 2% recorded in 2016 and the second time NIESR has upgraded its growth forecast since its initial report two months after the June referendum predicted that growth would be just 1.0% in 2017.

Along with news Wednesday that the purchasing managers’ index for the UK manufacturing sector dipped to 55.9 in January from 56.1 the previous month but remained well above the 50 mark separating expansion from contraction, this all suggests that GBP is cheap from an economic perspective.

Parliament is widely expected to vote against various amendments to the bill, in favour of the bill itself and then in favour of the timetable for the bill. Further debate and more voting will follow but the whole process could be completed by March 1, allowing UK Prime Minister Theresa May totrigger Article 50at a European Council meeting in Brussels later that week, three weeks before her self-imposed deadline of March 31.

Parliament’s vote this evening could prompt a knee-jerk slide in GBP/USD but thereafter it is well placed to rally as the whole Brexit process becomes clearer and attention turns to the UK’s fundamental strength.

Chart: GBPUSD Daily Timeframe (June 2016-February 2017). Source: IG

Brexit Briefing: GBP/USD Well Placed to Rally After Vote in Parliament

GBPUSD has already climbed from 1.20 in mid-January to above 1.26 currently and the recent highs of 1.2674 on January 26, 1.2723 on December 14 and 1.2775 on December 6 all look like achievable targets.

Now read: British Pound Eyes December High on Raised Inflation Concerns

Meanwhile, the Brexit talks could be on a “humongous scale” involving “difficult trade-offs”, the UK's former EU ambassador Sir Ivan Rogers told a UK Parliamentary committee Wednesday. He predicted that much of the talks would be “conducted very publicly” with “name-calling” and an “extremely feisty atmosphere”.

Rogers added that EU Commission chiefs were saying the UK should pay €40-60billion to leave and that a trade deal could take until the mid-2020s to agree. However, in a possible sign of a softening of the EU’s attitude towards the UK, a leaked report from a European Parliament committee warned that the EU will lose out if there’s a bad Brexit deal.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

To contact Martin, email him atmartin.essex@ig.com

Don't trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.