News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.81% France 40: -1.57% US 500: -2.06% Wall Street: -2.58% Germany 30: -3.53% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vJIyY1cNs4
  • https://t.co/L0O54x0AhV
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -0.03% #BITCOINCASH -3.33% #ETHEREUM -3.06% #RIPPLE -1.60% #LITECOIN -5.44%
  • $Nas tl test on support side of falling wedge $QQQ $Nasdaq https://t.co/0Ul8YWYHIg
  • Here is the German $DAX overlaid with the country's largest (and the world's third largest) software company $SAP. Warnings for the outlook owing to Covid are not just a German phenomena... https://t.co/pZrHjkUQYz
  • The Nasdaq took out support near 11,600, opening the door for a continuation lower Support looks fairly sparse until 11,200 👀 https://t.co/HMkGbNivSX
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 SNB Chair Jordan Speech due at 15:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-26
  • Forex Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.25% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.28% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.36% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.39% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/EmhRLpdqSL
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.33% France 40: -0.99% US 500: -1.39% Wall Street: -1.81% Germany 30: -2.89% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/CrwEYjOgvd
  • White House Advisor Kudlow says stimulus talks to continue today - BBG
US CPI Increases in July, Core CPI Now 17 Months Above 2%

US CPI Increases in July, Core CPI Now 17 Months Above 2%

2019-08-13 12:45:00
James Stanley, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

  • US inflation rose last month, with headline CPI printing at 1.8% after last month’s 1.6% print, and Core CPI printing at 2.2% after last month’s 2.1%.
  • The Fed cut rates last month for the first time in a decade even as Core CPI remained above target. Will this months pickup in inflation further hamper the Fed from a more aggressive dovish swing later this year?

This morning brought the release of CPI numbers for the month of July out of the Untied States. This release takes place amidst a backdrop of considerable concern as a recent fall in headline inflation has pushed the FOMC away from the hawkish pattern exhibited in 2018 and into a dovish position in 2019. The big question at this point is how dovish the Fed might get in the remainder of this year and markets have already built-in heavy expectations for another cut in September and, likely, another 25 basis points of softening in December.

At the core of this quandary is inflation in the United States. After coming very close to 3% in the summer of last year, headline inflation has experienced a brisk fall as last month produced a 1.6% print. Core inflation, however, stripping out food and energy, has been considerably more stable, with 16 consecutive months above the Fed’s 2% target. Last month produced a 2.1% print, and this creates a bit of difficulty for a Central Bank expected to move towards a more-aggressive stance of softening.

This morning brought another print above the Fed’s 2% target, extending the streak in Core CPI to now 17 months above 2%. July Core CPI printed at 2.2%, the highest level since January.

US Core CPI Since January, 2017

US Core CPI Since Jan 2017

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Headline inflation, however, remains a bit less positive. Headline CPI spiked to 2.9% a year ago and this came despite the fact that the Fed was continuing to hike rates. But as the year progressed, inflation slowed and by the time we got to December, headline CPI had already pushed back below the 2% level. This year has so far been marked by more struggle, as February saw CPI fall down to 1.5% and this hasn’t pushed back above 2% since.

This morning brought another below-2% print with headline CPI for the month of July coming in at 1.8%, rising from the 1.6% print from last month and beating the expectation for a 1.7% release.

US Headline CPI Since January, 2017

US Headline CPI Since Jan 2017

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES