We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Gold Price Technical Outlook: $XAUUSD Correction Approaching Support - https://t.co/XCkrdESFN4 https://t.co/wlvI0myFZm
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.43% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.77% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.84% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rAo0MfnXVB
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Bullard Speech due at 16:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-27
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.91% US 500: 0.14% FTSE 100: 0.12% France 40: 0.06% Germany 30: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hZuIomNwSE
  • The United States will not certify the autonomy of Hong Kong, putting its trade status in danger - BBG
  • RT @Lagarde: I am heartened to see this common European answer to the economic difficulties resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. #Stron…
  • Hey traders! With the bullish bias in the past few days, what are some highlights we are getting into today? Find out 👇 from @DailyFX Chief Strategist, @JohnKicklighter ! https://t.co/eXO2YWutRY
  • https://t.co/Mi7kAVUVOI
  • El crudo #WTI se juega los 35$ por barril en un marco político preocupante #oil #petroleo #trading https://t.co/B6NjYvTgs8
  • Austria's Kurz says EU plan's loan vs grant split and size needs to be debated $EUR
US Dollar Tanks Taking EUR/USD Near 2017 Highs, Gold Price Jumps

US Dollar Tanks Taking EUR/USD Near 2017 Highs, Gold Price Jumps

2017-08-25 17:45:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Highlights:

  • Dollar breakdown extends after Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech favoring regulation over growth
  • Hurricane Harvey sending commodity markets in different directions, Gold price jumps
  • EUR/USD looks set to test 1.2000 if ECB does not stand in its way
  • Sentiment Highlight Gold prices look likely to rally further

We are slowly entering a time of increased seasonal volatility and the turn into September next week is sure to add a spark like we haven’t seen in sometime. On Sunday’s open, the market will begin to price in fully any ramifications from Jackson Hole. The initial take away of focus was that Janet Yellen might have effectively turned in her 2-week notice as she favored holding off on deregulation in her speech. Such a view doesn’t seem to be that of a ‘team player’ to the Trump administration when she is up for reappointment in February of next year.

Be confident with your strategy and your market outlook by consulting our top FREE trading guides.

In addition to pricing in Jackson Hole ramifications, the damage, or hopeful lack thereof from Hurricane Harvey will likely provide a good deal of volatility for Crude Oil and Gasoline. The irony that many traders are grasping is that the Hurricane is a threat to demand of Crude Oil, which has come from refiners that are situated along the gulf coast, and not the production or supply of Oil, which is safely tucked away in West Texas. The supply from Eagle Ford Shale in south central Texas is not expected to be affected due to the relatively weak strength of the Hurricane once on land. The takeaway is that any disruption to refiners could weaken demand while supply stays high and could put further pressures on the price of Crude Oil.

In addition to Jackson Hole, next week will kick off with Brexit talks on Monday, which so far has led to persistent GBP weakness. This week, GBP saw its lowest close to the EUR since 2009, and further weakness could persist if negotiations weaken further. On Thursday, markets will close the month of August with a final taste of US inflation via the Personal Consumption Expenditure number, which is the Fed’s preferred method of inflation data followed by Friday’s ever-important US nonfarm payroll data. The US Data has been weak and consistently disappointment. Therefore, next week’s data will be looked as a validation of the bears or a possible short-covering parade if US economic data surprises to the upside.

Keep an eye on our economic calendar for Economic Data Points

On the charts, two key focal points will remain EUR/USD, which could benefit mightily from a freshly weak USD. Further USD weakness as seen in DXY would likely provide a clear path for EUR/USD to approach 1.2000. Another benefactor of a weak USD would be the price of Gold. Gold has struggled near the YTD high close from April. A new closing high would likely embolden commodity traders that have recently seen base metals trade consistently higher week on week for the longest run since 2006.

Are you looking for trading ideas? Our Q3 forecasts are fresh and ready to light your path. Click here to access for FREE.

JoinTylerin hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discusstradeable market developments.

FX Closing Bell Top Chart: DXY breaks aggressively lower from bear flag pattern

US Dollar Tanks Taking EUR/USD Near 2017 Highs, Gold Price Jumps

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Next Week's Main Event:USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG)

IG Client Sentiment Highlight:Gold Price Looks Likely to Rally Further

The sentiment highlight section is designed to help you see how DailyFX utilizes the insights derived from IG Client Sentiment, and how client positioning can lead to trade ideas. If you have any questions on this indicator, you are welcome to reach out to the author of this article with questions at tyell@dailyfx.com.

US Dollar Tanks Taking EUR/USD Near 2017 Highs, Gold Price Jumps

Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 61.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.56 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.1% higher than yesterday and 2.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.9% higher than yesterday and 11.4% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long (emphasis added).

---

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.