We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
  • Do you know which type of stock is the right investment for you? Stock types help investors decide on specific #stocks to trade or assist with valuation methods either fundamentally or technically. Learn more about stock types here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/RoNdExHAdt
  • The status of the US #dollar as the safe-haven asset of choice remains untouched and any weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/LO2u38jpUT https://t.co/ctgCJSOeTH
  • #FTSE 100 testing key support as the index lacks a directional bias. #DAX reverses off channel top. Get your indices technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IHF2dgMfg9 https://t.co/2fMTFlOeTR
  • With knowledge of price action, traders can perform a wide range of technical analysis functions without the necessity of any indicators, including management of risk. Build on you knowledge of price action here: https://t.co/9hQA0bsYtt https://t.co/5KQowxuiBf
  • The term ‘Ichimoku,’ literally means ‘one glance,’ in Japanese. Ichimoku, or the one glance indicator, is considered to be a self-contained system in the fact that no additional indicators are necessary. Learn more about the 'one glance' indicator here: https://t.co/T7o7W9C0Ro https://t.co/7bhBfWvEkR
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/85JHunf2Xf
  • Many traders ask how a trading method that is 77 years old is applicable today. Learn about the Gartley pattern and see how you can incorporate it into your trading style here: https://t.co/2yPmGH0XvT https://t.co/rtqUKZSdn1
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/ywv7RVP9qY
Top 5 Events: Q1'19 UK GDP & GBPUSD Price Forecast

Top 5 Events: Q1'19 UK GDP & GBPUSD Price Forecast

2019-05-06 18:10:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- The Q1’19 UK GDP report is due on Friday, May 10 at 08:30 GMT; consensus forecasts foresee a rebound in both quarterly and yearly growth rates.

- GBPUSD prices recently broke the downtrend from the March and April 2019 swing highs, but gains have been limited by prior trend support turned resistance.

- Retail traders are currently net-long GBPUSD and recent positioning changes point to more losses in the near-term.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

05/10 FRIDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Gross Domestic Product (1Q P)

Brexit tensions may have settled down in recent weeks after the deadline was pushed back to October 31, 2019. But before then, there were signs that the UK economy was finding its footing, in line with developments seen across the developed world. Given data from G7 economies, it appears that global growth hit a rut at the end of January and the beginning of February, before ending Q1’19 on stronger footing.

Data from the end of the first quarter showed noticeable improvement, particularly relative to one year prior: March UK industrial production grew by 0.5%, up from 0.1% in February (y/y); and March UK manufacturing production grew by 1.1%, up from 0.6% in February (y/y). Meanwhile, March UK retail sales (ex-auto fuel) added 6.2% over the prior month after growing by 3.8% in February; like the US economy, the UK economy is highly dependent on consumption to fuel growth trends.

Overall, the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the UK, a gauge of economic data momentum, gained from -25.3 to 16.4 over the course of the first quarter. Accordingly, the Bloomberg News consensus forecast for the Q1’19 UK GDP report calls for quarterly growth at 0.5% from 0.2% and yearly growth at 1.8% from 1.4%. If the Q1’19 UK GDP report comes in at 1.8% y/y, this will be the fastest rate of growth for the UK since Q4’17 (1.8% as well).

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Timeframe (June 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 1)

gbpusd price forecast, gbpusd technical analysis, gbpusd price chart, gbpusd chart, gbpusd price

Since the bearish outside engulfing bar on June 14, 2018, GBPUSD has closed all but 14 days trading between 1.2660 and 1.3365 – approximately 94% of the past eleven-months within the range. GBPUSD prices have been quite choppy in recent days: price has broken the downtrend from the March and April swing highs; but price has been rejected at former uptrend support off the December 2018 low.

For a more complete overview of the GBP-crosses, see Currency Strategist James Stanley’s recent note, Sterling Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Tests Support at Prior Resistance.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPUSD Price Forecast (May 6, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs gbpusd, gbpusd price chart, gbpusd price forecast, gbpusd technical analysis

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 57.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.33 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 11.4% higher than yesterday and 31.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.6% lower than yesterday and 38.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.