We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUSTRALIA PM MORRISON: - Businesses need to judge China risk, but iron ore trading figures reassuring - Reopening the economy over 3-5 years will be more difficult than closing it down, facing "most challenging [economy]...outside of wartime." #AUDUSD
  • (#ASEAN Fundy) The US Dollar could rise against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data $USDSGD #USD $USDINR - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/05/25/US-Dollar-May-Rise-as-SGD-Falls-on-US-China-Woes-Indian-Rupee-at-Risk.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/BHR1vaN8vO
  • BOJ GOV KURODA: - will consider expanding ETF purchases if needed - monetary easing is needed until price-target is met - will consider new easing measures if needed - BoJ's extraordinary measures wont stay post-coronavirus #USDJPY #BOJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.44% Oil - US Crude: 1.02% Gold: 0.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/zbMOhIkpeW
  • As political tensions between the US and China increase, $gld is picking up a safe-haven bid ahead of the long weekend and may look to press higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/boUn4vyfCO https://t.co/beDj1yEO0U
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.29% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.28% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qj45yOo16T
  • BOJ GOV KURODA: - will consider changing rates of yield curve control if needed - will consider expanding loan programs if needed #USDJPY #BOJ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.43%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/4TavGtwG3Z
  • Risk-on tone prevailing in APAC trade. #SPX futures up with #AUD and #NZD as #USD, #JPY and #bonds decline. #Gold interestingly up with stocks despite higher yields, weaker US$ may be the driver https://t.co/MJH6iKu3MX
  • China sets #USDCNY daily reference rate at 7.1293 vs 7.1277 yesterday
FX Markets Tracking Global Equities, US Dollar Awaits CPI & Retail Sales

FX Markets Tracking Global Equities, US Dollar Awaits CPI & Retail Sales

2018-01-08 20:45:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- Liquidity conditions continue to normalize as the calendar turns into the first full trading week of 2018; MiFID II adoption may be holding back trading volumes, however.

- There are only four ‘high’ importance data releases on the calendar this week, two from each China and the United States.

- Retail trader positioning is pointing to further rough days ahead for the US Dollar as trading gets under way in 2018.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EST/12:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

01/10 Wednesday | 01:30 GMT | CNY Chinese Consumer Price Index (DEC)

Chinese consumer prices rose by +1.7% y/y in November, continuing the inter-year rebound after setting a two-year low in inflation in February (+0.8%). The December reading is due to show further improvement, up to +1.9% y/y. Nevertheless, price pressures remain muted relative to the start of 2017, when CPI was +2.5% y/y in January. Thanks to stabilizing base metal prices, the Producer Price Index – the cost of inputs at the factory gate, if you will – is due in at +4.8% from +5.8% y/y. Slowly improving inflation readings out of China could filter through and impact the Australian and New Zealand Dollars under the guise that greater demand and ‘hotter’ economic activity from China will help with the two antipodean currencies appreciate – sentiment that has clearly developed over the past four weeks given the sharp rebound in commodity prices and the ensuing pickup in AUD- and NZD-cross rates.

Pairs to Watch: AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CNH

01/12 Friday | 13:30 GMT | USD Advance Retail Sales & Consumer Price Index (DEC)

Consumption is the most important part of the US economy, generating approximately 70% of the headline GDP figure. The best monthly insight we have into consumption trends in the US might arguably be the Advance Retail Sales report. In December, according to a Bloomberg News survey, consumption was due in at +0.4% from +0.8% m/m. The Retail Sales Control Group, the input used to calculate GDP, is due in at +0.4% from +0.8% m/m as well. Currently, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4’17 growth forecast is +2.7%.

FX Markets Tracking Global Equities, US Dollar Awaits CPI & Retail Sales

According to a Bloomberg News survey, US consumer prices were marginally higher on a monthly-basis in October, due in at +0.1% from +0.4% m/m and +2.1% from +2.2% y/y. The core readings should be similar, at +0.2% from +0.1% m/m, and at +1.7% unch y/y. These figures suggest some underlying disinflation continues to persist, threatening to undermine the Fed’s planned path for three hikes in 2018; the first hike is being priced in for March 2018.

Pairs to Watch: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY Index, Gold

Read more: Euro’s Strong Fundamentals Drive Long Positioning Build Up at Start of 2018

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com.

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

Don’t trade FX but want to learn more? Read the DailyFX Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.