We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $GBPUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.199 S2: 1.2289 S1: 1.2469 R1: 1.2768 R2: 1.2887 R3: 1.3185 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.40% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.28% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.30% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/mniVWFo2RE
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.09% Gold: -0.81% Silver: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fkMLmNBNWw
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 106.81 S2: 107.57 S1: 108 R1: 108.75 R2: 109.07 R3: 109.82 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @TradersTextbook: AAh, the unicorn stocks!🦄 Returns from recent unicorns since their IPO. Uber: -29% Lyft: -55% Peloton: -17% Fiverr:…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.07%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.39%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/I63rBfzto7
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.091 S2: 1.0972 S1: 1.1005 R1: 1.1067 R2: 1.1096 R3: 1.1158 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The bearish steepening of the US Treasury yield curve – long-end rates are rising faster than short-end rates – is a sign of improving risk appetite among traders. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/iVw110HfdW https://t.co/enRFv1p4hT
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.88% $SPX +1.02% $NDX +1.28% $RTY +1.24% $VIX -7.28%
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% Germany 30: -0.11% France 40: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ejAzGhz2Sl
Dow Jones Industrial Average Finds Support Post Jackson Hole

Dow Jones Industrial Average Finds Support Post Jackson Hole

2016-08-29 12:41:00
Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

-Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sold off on Friday as Fed rate hike odds rise to 42% for September

-Technical picture remains bullish so long as prices are above 17,800

-18,300 is the next level of support to watch

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has been talking up the possibility of September being a live meeting, suggesting a rate hike is possible sooner than later. If this happens, logic would dictate that the hike may become a head wind for DJIA which was why we saw stocks sell off a bit on Friday.

Taking a step back, Fed Fund futures are pricing in the chance of a rate hike at 42% for the September 21 meeting which is the highest odds in over the past 3 months. This suggests the markets have worked through the Brexit risks and worry and are coming out on the other side ok. This should come as no surprise as we highlighted the bullish potential and patterns 3 business days after the Brexit vote was cast, on June 29.

Additionally, with the US presidential elections a mere 2 months away, why is the Fed appearing to be in a hurry to raise rates? I have to wonder if this is more talk than action for September which opens the door for a rate hike disappointment on September 21.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Finds Support Post Jackson Hole

Chart prepared by Jeremy Wagner

From a technical perspective, prices did break down below the equal wave measurement and outside of the blue price channel. Therefore, we may see another drop towards 18,300. However, the medium term bullish patterns remain as this appears to be a technical correction. Therefore, we are anticipating these dips to be bought on an eventual push higher towards 19,700.

In fact, so long as prices remain above 17,800, we can look for support to form on an eventual break higher towards 19,700. Below 17,800 does not negate those bullish opportunities, but does begin to open the door to more immediate term bearish scenarios.

Bottom line, don’t let the near term noise distract from the medium term patterns. With the medium term patterns suggesting higher prices, use dips to position to the bullish side and establish better risk to reward ratios.

Interested in a longer term outlook for equities? Download our quarterly forecast here.

Good luck!

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX EDU

Follow me on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

See Jeremy’s recent articles at his Bio Page.

To receive additional articles from Jeremy via email, join Jeremy’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.