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Learn Forex: Finding Trends in Trendless Markets (Part 2)

Learn Forex: Finding Trends in Trendless Markets (Part 2)

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

Talking Points:

  • Elliott Wave Principle can guide us on where we are in a trend
  • EUR/CAD is displaying three different patterns rooted in Elliott Wave that suggests this down trend has just started
  • Price may bounce temporarily into resistance, look to sell the bounce

This is the second part of this article series. The first part was regarding the strong trend the Chinese Yuan, which is now available to trade.

The objective of this series is to find tradable trends when the market appears to be stagnating. Trend following is one of the most popular strategies used by new and experienced traders. When market volatility dies down, the old trends tend to move sideways creating frustration for the trader. There are strong trends out there and this series will help shine a light on those trends presenting tradable opportunities.

Today’s opportunity is with the EUR/CAD. There are three patterns appearing at different time frames suggesting a meaningful top is in place and that more downside potential remains.

Learn Forex: EURCAD Trend Shifts Down

Learn Forex: Finding Trends in Trendless Markets (Part 2)

(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)

From a 4 hour price chart, it appears the EUR/CAD has carved out an ending diagonal. In this case it is a bearish pattern that suggests prices will likely fall towards the origination of the pattern at 1.4900. Keep this level in mind as we zone in on smaller time frames to fine tune our entry and exit plan.

Learn Forex: 2 Different Time Frames Forming 5 Waves Down

Learn Forex: Finding Trends in Trendless Markets (Part 2)

(Created using FXCM’s Marketscope 2.0 charts)

From the high on March 20, 2014, prices clearly fell in five waves in impulsive fashion to a low of 1.5003. So far prices have only partially retraced the high from March.

The Elliott Wave Principle illustrates that trends move in a five wave impulsive fashion and corrects in three waves (the blue labels above and the corrective waves labeled as A-B-C). Therefore, with a five wave move lower, this suggests that the trend may be shifting from up to down with a minimum target of 1.4900 which was the origination of the ending diagonal pattern (first chart).

Upon closer inspection, we can see how the price action over the past two days has yielded clue of a bearish trend. Zooming into the tan boxed area, we can see another smaller degree five wave move lower (green labels). All of these patterns suggest the EUR/CAD pair has likely put in a top with an initial target of 1.4900.

Suggested Reading: 3 Steps to Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally

The Trade Set Up

Therefore, our trading opportunity is to short the EURCAD in the 1.5200 to 1.5230 zone. Our stop loss will be just above the April 27 high at 1.5320. Look to take profits near 1.4900.

Therefore, if we risk 90 pips with an opportunity to make over 300 pips, this provides us with better than a 1-to-3 risk-to-reward ratio.

Try this trade and the other trades from the “Finding Trends in Trendless Market” series on a FX practice account.

Learn Forex: Finding Trends in Trendless Markets (Part 2)

FXCM’s Risk Management Calculator App

If you need help on determining a trade size appropriate for your account size, register to take this free Money Management course. Towards the end of the course, you will be given an opportunity to download a free app that will help you determine what trade size to make based on your account size.

The Money Management course is about 31 minutes long and is available on demand by entering your name, email, phone number, and country when registering HERE.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.