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Nikkei at Key Juncture?

Nikkei at Key Juncture?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

The Nikkei 225 tested important resistance today. The area between 16,985 and 17,200 looks potentially significant to me as it marks a relatively tight confluence of the 50-day moving average, the 38% retracement of the June - February decline, the measured move of the early February advance and the 78.6% retracement of the February range. There is also some interesting timing this week as it is the 100% retracement in time of the October 2014 - June 2015 advance. Given this price/time convergence I think there is a decent chance the index could try and turn back down before the end of the week. Traction over 17,200 would invalidate this view.

My trade entry is conditional. I want to sell the Nikkei 225 on a stop if it trades under 16,680 or I want to sell at 17,040 – whichever happens first cancels the other. My stop on the former will be a daily close just above today’s high while the stop on the latter would be a daily close above 17,200. If neither is triggered by the end of trading tomorrow I will cancel both.

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