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USD/JPY - Breakdown Looming?

USD/JPY - Breakdown Looming?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

I have been short USD/JPY since late last month on the failure at the 61.8% retracement of the 125.25 – 116.10 decline. I took profit on half the position at the beginning of the month following the payrolls number and have been managing the position ever since. Repeated failures near the 200-day moving average have kept me negative on the exchange rate and looking for an eventual downside resolution from the multi-week triangle/consolidation. A daily close under last week’s low around 119.00 would help confirm this view and set the stage for a more important decline towards last month’s closing low near 118.30 and possibly even back towards 116.00. A move back through 121.00, on the other hand, would force a re-think.

Short USD/JPY from around 121.50. Took profit on half near 119.00. Stop lowered to 121.05 on the remainder of position.

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