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USD/JPY - Breakdown Looming?

USD/JPY - Breakdown Looming?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

I have been short USD/JPY since late last month on the failure at the 61.8% retracement of the 125.25 – 116.10 decline. I took profit on half the position at the beginning of the month following the payrolls number and have been managing the position ever since. Repeated failures near the 200-day moving average have kept me negative on the exchange rate and looking for an eventual downside resolution from the multi-week triangle/consolidation. A daily close under last week’s low around 119.00 would help confirm this view and set the stage for a more important decline towards last month’s closing low near 118.30 and possibly even back towards 116.00. A move back through 121.00, on the other hand, would force a re-think.

Short USD/JPY from around 121.50. Took profit on half near 119.00. Stop lowered to 121.05 on the remainder of position.


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.